In light of the crisis that unfolded in southern Yemen at the end of 2025, ACLED’s Middle East Regional Specialist explains what happened and how players in the region have reacted. Long-simmering tensions within Yemen’s
Condamnation de la reconnaissance du Somaliland par Israël
Le Conseil des ministres des affaires étrangères des États membres de l’Organisation de la coopération islamique (OCI), réuni à sa 22ème session extraordinaire le samedi 10 janvier 2026 au Secrétariat général de l’Organisation de la
Kachallas and Kinship: Understanding Jihadi Expansion and Diffusion in Nigeria
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Somalia Cancels UAE Agreements; Sudan-Pakistan Arms Deal: Africa File, January 15, 2026
Key Takeaways: Somalia. Somalia canceled all bilateral agreements with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which legally annuls UAE access to key Red Sea ports and military bases, although local governments have rejected the decision. The
Sudan Stands Between War and an Imposed Peace
Three possible scenarios have emerged for the war-torn country in 2026, but current realities suggest that a ceasefire and formal transition to civilian governance are the least likely. The conflict in Sudan continues unabated, with
What Ankara sees in Riyadh — and why it still needs Abu Dhabi
As the rivalry between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi sharpens in Yemen and beyond, Turkey has begun edging closer to Saudi Arabia. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has openly acknowledged Saudi concerns, saying in a televised
How Israel’s Somaliland gambit will reshape Red Sea geopolitics
Late last year, Israel broke new diplomatic ground by becoming the first country to formally recognise the independence of Somaliland, a self-declared republic existing within Somalia’s internationally recognised territory. Perched along the southern coast of
Sudan’s War Has a Center of Gravity: The Muslim Brotherhood Behind al-Burhan’s Regime
Since the outbreak of full-scale war in April 2023, Muslim Brotherhood loyalists have not merely supported the Sudanese army — they have embedded themselves within its operational, intelligence, and political core. In effect, the war
What’s Next For South Yemen?
Given the sacrifices that they’ve already made for their cause, most South Yemenis will likely oppose the Saudis’ plot to subordinate them, with the only possible exception being some bribed tribes in the energy-rich East
How Sudan’s shifting battlefield will test Egypt’s ‘red lines’
After El-Fasher’s fall, Egypt faces the choice of intervening in a war against UAE proxies, or standing by as its ‘red lines’ in Sudan fade into irrelevance For nearly a thousand days, Egypt’s posture toward