What Happened?
On April 17, the Tunisian authorities arrested Rashed Ghannouchi, the leader of the Islamist Ennahda Party. Ghannouchi, who is 81 years old, was the speaker of parliament before it was dissolved by President Qaïs Saied following his power grab of July 25, 2021. He was arrested along with two other members of Ennahda’s Executive Bureau. The party’s headquarters were also raided by the police. This occurred after the authorities had detained other political opponents and public figures for a variety of purported offenses, ranging from engaging in a “conspiracy against state security” to violations of Decree 54, which civil society organizations have denounced as a threat to freedom of the press and freedom of expression.
During the previous months, Ghannouchi had been in court over allegations that Ennahda had supposedly helped jihadists travel to fight in Syria. He was also interrogated for alleged money laundering in relation to foreign funding for Ennahda-linked associations and charities. Ghannouchi’s arrest followed a statement he made in a meeting of the National Salvation Front, a coalition of forces that Ennahda helped establish and that opposes Saied’s measures. Ghannouchi reportedly said, “Tunisia without Ennahda, without political Islam, without the left, or any other component, is a project for civil war.”
Why Is It Important?
Ennahda has played a prominent role in Tunisia’s modern history, leading the Islamic revival in the 1960s before entering politics in the late 1970s as the major opposition movement to the late president Habib Bourguiba. After Bourguiba’s removal in 1987 and the rise to power of Zine al-Abedin Ben Ali in 1987, Ennahda faced significant repression. Thousands of its members were jailed and Ghannouchi and other leaders were pushed into exile for two decades, before returning to Tunisia in 2011 after the uprising against Ben Ali.
Ghannouchi and Ennahda led the post-2011 coalition government and contributed to the drafting of the constitution of 2014, which the international community praised. He crafted pragmatic compromises with former regime representatives, and together they ushered in a transactional form of Tunisian politics. While this contributed to preserving the democratic experiment, the compromises also ended up feeding social anger against what was seen as the corruption of the political class and dashed public hopes for socioeconomic change.
This paved the way for a rise of populism in 2019 and Saied’s election as president in October of that year. Less than two years later, Saied organized his effective coup in which he dissolved parliament, dismissed the prime minister, and reinforced his judicial authority. Since then, he has accumulated more power and rebuilt a hyper-presidential political system, while progressively cracking down on the opposition and dissenting voices. Ghannouchi’s arrest represents a significant escalation in this regard, as it will entrench the political stalemate prevailing in Tunisia and consecrate the narrowing of political space in the country.
What Are the Implications for the Future?
There are three major consequences of Ghannouchi’s arrest that will need to be monitored. First, the arrest will undermine the prospect of a political dialogue to find a solution to Tunisia’s deadlock. Civil society organizations, led by the Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT), have been working on a National Dialogue Initiative to help resolve the country’s political crisis. The UGTT revealed recently that its initiative would be presented to Saied and would soon be made public. Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboun, who has good relations with Saied, mentioned recently in an interview with Al-Jazeera television that Algiers would support this. Yet Saied has rejected a dialogue, claiming it should only take place in the context of a new parliament, which means excluding political parties that have opposed his power grab. Ghannouchi’s arrest has put a definitive end to any such dialogue and shows, once more, that Saied is unwilling to compromise. This may be followed with other escalatory steps, including the arrest of more political figures, Ennahda’s dissolution, and a crackdown on civil society.
Second, the arrest exacerbates Tunisia’s political impasse at a time of deep financial and economic crisis. The country has been negotiating a reform program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for two years. Without an IMF deal or some other form of bailout, Tunisia is at risk of defaulting on its debt in the coming months. Saied has said he would reject IMF “diktats,” putting the negotiations at risk. While Ghannouchi’s arrest may serve Saied’s strategy of blaming others for Tunisia’s woes, in the same way he blamed the political class for mismanaging the economy, it might also undermine political stability. This would exacerbate the social situation and endanger the implementation of a reform package.
Third, Ghannouchi’s arrest may be a signal to other Islamist movements that exiting political Islam is impossible and that moderation and strategies to integrate into political systems might end up in total failure. This is all the truer in that Ghannouchi was a prominent Islamist leader who displayed a high level of flexibility. He was able to build bridges with secularists and manage a democratic transition that was praised by the international community. What happens to Ghannouchi personally will be intimately tied to the future of political Islam in the region, whether for the good or the worse.