In Somalia, Al-Shabaab launched its deadliest attack yet to disrupt the election process and breached Mogadishu’s airport perimeter for the first time since 2014. It is unclear how authorities will conclude the protracted electoral cycle, as the federal government is divided on the next steps. Al-Shabaab could exploit the situation to launch further attacks.

In Ethiopia, the federal government declared an “indefinite humanitarian truce” to allow aid into the Tigray region, while localised clashes persisted in Afar and Amhara regions. The parties must go beyond a humanitarian truce and seize the moment if they are to end hostilities in a durable manner.

The Ukrainian war exacerbated Lebanon’s economic crisis, as the Lebanese lira continued to depreciate amid rising food and commodity prices. Meanwhile, pressure on the Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh accused of illegal enrichment and money laundering may bode ill for negotiations over an IMF financial rescue package, as important political stakeholders are divided over Salameh. Election campaigning in coming weeks will further increase the danger of sporadic violence.