Conflict Trends Update

SOMALIA

Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble and state leaders on Sunday agreed to complete the indirect elections of the Lower House of Parliament by 25 February. The process has been repeatedly delayed and marked by serious manipulation, while the re-emergence in late December of a power struggle between Roble and President Farmajo also threatens stability. Crisis Group expert Omar Mahmood says another electoral delay appears likely as what has hobbled the timeline over the past six months is unlikely to be overcome in the next six weeks. Somalia’s leadership has also done little to address ongoing electoral irregularities, meaning forthcoming polls will likely continue to suffer from serious political interference. Meanwhile, the protracted rift between Roble and Farmajo raises the risk of confrontation in the capital, as both leaders attempt to ensure security forces respond to their direct control.