Conflict Trends Update

LIBYA

The electoral commission on Wednesday officially proposed postponing the poll scheduled for Friday, following weeks of disputes over the eligibility of candidates and other legal issues. Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini says that the fact that the vote has not taken place is not entirely bad news for the country. Had the ballot gone forward, the most likely result would have been legal disputes, boycotts and contested results. What is worrying, however, is that there is no real plan on how to move the election process forward because the new date set for the ballots – 24 January 2022 – is also likely to be postponed.


SOMALIA

Clashes this week in Puntland, a member state in Somalia’s federal system, between a segment of the Puntland Security Forces (PSF) and other units commanded by Puntland president Said Abdullahi Deni killed around twenty people. Crisis Group expert Omar Mahmood says Deni’s removal of the PSF commander in November and the commander’s rejection of that order has resulted in the current tensions. A previous deal mediated by elders faltered, and rival forces took up positions in the port town Bossaso, where the PSF is based. The clashes complicate efforts for Puntland to conduct overdue elections for the national parliament’s lower house, some of which are scheduled to be held in Bossaso.