Conflict Trends Update

ETHIOPIA

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared a six-month state of emergency after the Tigray forces captured strategic towns in eastern Amhara region. Meanwhile, clashes between government forces and the rebel Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) spiked in Oromia region. Crisis Group expert William Davison says that the Tigray forces have maintained considerable momentum since July, while the morale of federal troops has been falling. As their territorial advance continues, there is a possibility that the Tigray forces may soon seize control of landlocked Ethiopia’s main trade route, which connects Addis Ababa with the Port of Djibouti, or even try and overthrow Abiy’s government by marching on the federal capital with the OLA. That would risk tearing the state apart, with increasing reprisals against Tigrayan civilians, chaos in Addis Ababa and, if the armed movements took power, a rebellious Amhara region.