Conflict Risk Alerts: Deteriorated Situations

Burkina Faso

Jihadists stepped up attacks, inflicting heaviest monthly death toll on military since 2019 and leaving scores of civilians killed. Series of deadly jihadist attacks reported in Sahel region (north) near borders with Mali and Niger. In Oudalan province, suspected jihadist militants 4 Aug killed 30 people – 15 soldiers, four volunteers fighting alongside security forces (VDPs) and 11 civilians – in Dambam, Gubda and Tokabangou localities; ten militants also killed. Clashes between al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) also continued in Oudalan, leaving ten militants killed in Déou department 15 Aug. In Seno province, VDPs 10 Aug clashed with suspected jihadist militants in Gorgadji department; five VDPs and 17 gunmen killed. In Soum province, jihadist combatants 18 Aug attacked military convoy escorting civilians near Boukouma village on Gorgadji-Arbinda axis, leaving 80 dead including 65 civilians; recent incidents in Soum reveal fragility of local non-aggression pact struck between govt and JNIM in late 2020. Rising insecurity also reported in Boucle du Mouhoun region (west). Suspected JNIM combatants 8 Aug ambushed military convoy in Toéni department, Sourou province, killing 12; attack may have come as retaliation for killing of JNIM leader Sidibe Ousmane and his spiritual guide Bande Amadou by defence forces in Kossi province previous day. Special anti-terrorism court in capital Ouagadougou 9-13 held first trials since its creation in 2017; 10 Aug sentenced two suspected members of JNIM-affiliated Ansarul Islam militants to 20 years in prison and next day sentenced suspected ISGS combatant to 21-year imprisonment. European Court of Human Rights 6 Aug temporarily suspended extradition from France of former President Compaoré’s brother, François Compaoré, pending final decision; François Compaoré is wanted by Burkina Faso in connection with 1998 murder of journalist Norbert Zongo.

South Sudan

Split within VP Riek Machar’s movement sparked deadly violence; govt faced new calls to stand down, and implementation of transitional security arrangements remained stalled. Military leaders from a rural headquarters of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) 3 Aug claimed to have ousted Machar as movement leader over alleged failure to represent group’s interests, appointed Simon Gatwech Dual as interim leader. SPLM/A-IO forces loyal to Machar and Dual’s splinter group 7 Aug clashed in Magenis area, Upper Nile state, reportedly leaving dozens killed; 17 Aug reportedly clashed again in same area. Few SPLM-A/IO commanders elsewhere publicly backed Dual; SPLM/A-IO deputy chairman and Mining Minister Henry Odwar 11 Aug however resigned from govt, next day said he supported Dual. Meanwhile, following months-long delay, Transitional National Legislative Assembly sworn in 2 Aug, paving way for implementing key steps of peace process including constitutional review and electoral preparation. Intergovernmental Authority for Development chairperson, Sudanese PM Abdallah Hamdok, 19-20 Aug failed to broker agreement between President Kiir and Machar on share of signatory groups in unified national army, with Kiir reportedly demanding 60% of recruits be drawn from his forces. After coalition of civil society groups late July called for country’s leadership to resign and mid-Aug called for countrywide anti-govt protests 30 Aug, govt deployed military and police forces in capital Juba, arrested several activists, shut down internet and threatened to use live bullets; streets 30 Aug remained quiet. Kiir 18 Aug accused members of coalition of non-signatory rebel groups South Sudan Opposition Movements Alliance (SSOMA) of carrying out “terror attacks”, after unidentified gunmen 16 Aug reportedly killed five people on Juba-Nimule road; SSOMA faction led by Thomas Cirillo, National Salvation Front, immediately denied responsibility; Kiir 30 Aug suspended govt’s participation in Rome peace talks with SSOMA, said negotiations would resume when SSOMA “cease killing innocent people”. Intercommunal violence persisted mainly in centre and south: 31 people killed 15-16 Aug in Tonj East county, Warrap state; seven dead 3-4 Aug in Terekeka county, Central Equatoria state; and about 20 killed and over 20,000 displaced late July-late Aug in Western Equatoria state.

Tunisia

In worst political crisis since 2011, President Saïed extended parliament’s suspension indefinitely, consolidating his power grab. Following late-July move to dismiss govt, suspend parliament and assume public prosecutor’s powers, Saïed 5 Aug said there was “no turning back”, dismissed “dialogue except with the honest” and pledged “rights and freedoms” would not be violated. Several prominent civil society organisations same day jointly called on Saïed to swiftly release roadmap for ending exceptional measures. Parliament Speaker Rached Ghannouchi 11 Aug acknowledged public anger over country’s economic and political situation, pledged his Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party – which was part of coalition govt and largest group in parliament – would “engage in self-criticism” and review its policies to match Tunisians’ aspirations; also stressed situation does not justify taking “step back from democracy”. Saïed 23 Aug however extended suspension of parliament “until further notice”. Dismissal of senior govt officials continued, including Economy Minister Ali Kooli and Communications Technology Minister Mohamed Fadhel Kraiem 2 Aug. Reshuffle of top security officials also under way: Saïed 18 Aug reportedly appointed new director general of national security and new commander of National Guard, while interior ministry next day appointed nine senior officials including new intelligence chief. Meanwhile, authorities 6 Aug placed senior An-Nahda official and former Minister Anouar Maarouf under house arrest over alleged abuse of authority; 12 Aug arrested 14 individuals including public officials and issued arrest warrants for three others, including former industry minister, for alleged corruption; former head of anti-corruption body Chawki Tabib placed under house arrest 20 Aug after security forces earlier same day took control of body’s headquarters in capital Tunis. NGO Amnesty International 26 Aug said at least 50 people, including judges, senior state officials and civil servants, arbitrarily barred from travelling abroad over past month, noted total number facing travel bans likely to be far greater; Saied 16 Aug said travel bans form part of efforts to prevent people suspected of corruption or of posing security threat from leaving country. Egypt 3 Aug expressed support for Saïed’s “historic measures”, while U.S. 13 Aug urged “swift return to…parliamentary democracy”, stressed “need to appoint a PM-designate”.