Algeria wants to contain the crisis and distance itself from the accelerating developments that risk plunging it into a larger crisis.

By parading a Russian-made ballistic missile named Iskander, the Algerian Ministry of Defence gave clear indications that Algiers wants to divert attention from the escalation taking place in the area of Guerguerat on Morocco’s southern border.

The Polisario was involved in recent days in unprovoked moves that Morocco was quick to thwart and turn to its advantage by demonstrating its ability to regain control of the situation in the area and reaffirming its commitment to abiding by UN-sponsored understandings.

Algerian Army Chief of Staff, Said Chengriha, stressed in a broadcast video recording, the need to “defend the homeland against terrorism, smugglers and even against a classic enemy,” and said that “Algeria is the most powerful country in the region.”

Observers considered that the Algerian show of force coinciding with Polisario’s escalation, although that escalation was more in terms of rhetoric than ground actions, reveals Algeria’s desire to contain the crisis and distance itself from the accelerating developments that risk plunging it into a larger crisis against the backdrop of major internal political, economic and social upheavals, especially that the Algerian army is keen on keeping the question of the Sahara and Tindoufare under its control and avoiding the interference of the president, the government, or the population.

Analysts said that Algeria does not want to provide an appropriate climate for Morocco to resolve the matter in its favour, especially in light of the weakness shown by the Polisario and the shift in African and international opinion in favour of Rabat’s vision for a solution. The analysts say Algiers wants the issue to remain unresolved so that it can employ it according to its internal agenda, especially in dissipating any social pressures.

While field reports indicate that the military situation in Guerguerat is now calm and that has never evolved beyond minor skirmishes to which the Moroccan armed forces responded rather quickly and effectively, statements by leaders of the Polisario have urged the military wing of their organisation to expand the scope and intensity of operations.

The representative of the Polisario Front in Algeria, Abdelkader Talib Omar, threatened on Monday to take what he described as “the struggle” from Guerguerat to the rest of the cities in the southern provinces of the Kingdom of Morocco, in an attempt to cover up the defeat of his organization at the Guerguerat border crossing last Friday.

Since Friday, the Polisario has issued several statements claiming “intense attacks” on various sites of the Moroccan forces along the “defensive wall.”

On the Moroccan side, there has been no official statement about the occurrence of clashes, except for the reference to Royal Armed Forces being shot at during their intervention in Guerguerat, to which they responded “without incurring any casualties,” according to a statement by its General Command on Friday.

On Sunday night, the Moroccan official news agency Maghreb Arabe Presse (MAP) quoted an informal forum of the Royal Armed Forces as saying that the latter opened fire in response to the Polisario’s “provocations” in the Mahbas area north of the military wall.

MAP quoted the forum’s Facebook page as saying, “Since November 13, 2020, the Polisario militia has carried out provocative actions by firing at army posts along the security wall without causing any human or material damage in the ranks of the Royal Armed Forces.”

“In implementation of orders not to tolerate any provocation of this kind, the valiant elements of the Royal Armed Forces responded firmly to these provocations and destroyed a weapons carrier east of the security fence in the Mahbas area,” the page added.

In the context of suggesting the Polisario’sability to create conditions of chaos and keep the war alive, Mohamed Salem OuldSalek, a leader in the Polisario Front, confirmed that “thousands of volunteers” are being enlisted to participate in the military operation that Morocco carried out at the border crossing with Mauritania.

“There are also hundreds in military schools,” Ould Salek said, claiming that “the fighting continues in an escalating manner” in the far south of the region, without providing any further details.