Belarus

Mass demonstrations erupted in run-up to and following disputed presidential elections, leading to clashes with police and large-scale arrests. Mass protests against President Lukashenko’s bid for sixth term continued ahead of 9 Aug election: police 8-9 Aug launched violent crackdown on thousands of protesters in capital Minsk.

Central Election Commission 10 Aug declared Lukashenko winner with 80% of votes, while opposition candidate Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya received 9.9%; opposition same day rejected result, accusing govt of rigging vote and calling for dialogue on peaceful transfer of power. Tsikhanouskaya 11 Aug fled to Lithuania following alleged threats from govt. Thousands took to streets in following weeks including in Minsk, Brest, Grodno, Vitsebsk and other cities demanding Lukashenko step down; police fired tear gas, rubber bullets, stun grenades and used batons to disperse crowds, killing at least three and detaining thousands; protesters in return set up barricades in several areas of Minsk. UK and U.S. 10 Aug expressed grave concern over violence and flawed election; EU foreign policy chief 10 Aug called for immediate release of detainees while UN human rights chief 12 Aug described detentions as “clear violation of international human rights standards”; Belarus govt 13 August issued apology for use of force and released over 2,000 protestors. Lukashenko 15 Aug said “Russia will provide comprehensive assistance to ensure the security of Belarus”; Kremlin 19 Aug said Russia saw no need for intervention for time being. Lukashenko 17 Aug refused to hold new elections while expressing readiness to share power; Tsikhanouskaya’s representative next day announced launch of Coordination Council with aim of negotiating transfer of power; Lukashenko denounced move as “attempt to seize power” and court 25 Aug sentenced two high profile members of Council to ten days in jail. EU 19 Aug announced intention to impose sanctions on individuals; Russian FM 25 Aug warned EU and U.S. against move. Defence ministry 23 Aug warned protestors that army would respond to any “violation of order” near presidential residence; tens of thousands same day gathered peacefully near residence. Supreme Court 25 Aug rejected Tsikhanouskaya’s appeal to annul election results.

Ukraine

Following late July ceasefire deal between Minsk accord parties, casualties decreased in Donbas conflict zone; Donetsk de facto leadership threatened new escalation. July ceasefire in Donbas conflict zone largely held throughout month: Ukrainian military confirmed no casualties or injuries in combat. Both sides continued to sustain non-combat casualties, however, particularly from landmines, including one Ukrainian serviceman killed 13 Aug, one Russian-backed fighter killed 15 Aug and two Russian-backed fighters killed 28 Aug. Sides accused each other of violating ceasefire rules with small arms, drones and fortification of positions. In move that could escalate conflict, Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) head Denis Pushilin 28 Aug threatened to order “destruction of trenches and shelters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fortified or created after 22 July” if these were not removed by 3 Sept. Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) members held heated discussions throughout month on meaning of “special status” for territories currently under control of separatists; Ukrainian delegation head Leonid Kravchuk 4 Aug suggested replacing “special status” with “special system of administration”; in response, DPR de facto FM Natalia Nikonorova warned of Ukrainian attempts to “nullify the [Minsk] agreements”. Deputy head of presidential administration Andryi Yermak 7 Aug announced imminent exchange of 200 prisoners. Luhansk People’s Republic TCG representative Olga Kobtseva 20 Aug said, however, no progress made on swap due to Kyiv govt legislation passed in July stating that no elections would be held in Donetsk and Luhansk until govt takes control of state border, which Kobtseva said would negate “the whole point of the Minsk agreements”. Ukrainian govt said sides 20 Aug agreed to 20 new demining zones and four disengagement zones. Following Ukraine’s extradition request of Wagner military battalion members arrested in Minsk in July, Belarus authorities 14 Aug announced fighters had been handed over to Russia. As of 1 Sept, DPR de facto authorities reported steady rise of total COVID-19 cases to 2,560 while Luhansk People’s Republic registered total 692 cases.

Lebanon

Massive explosion in capital Beirut fuelled violent anti-govt protests and prompted PM Diab’s govt to resign. In port of Beirut, large stockpile of highly explosive ammonium nitrate – stored, despite repeated warnings, near densely populated area without adequate safety measures – 4 Aug reportedly caught fire and triggered massive explosion that killed at least 190, injured some 7,000 and displaced up to 300,000. Catastrophe and govt negligence sparked popular anger against political elite: thousands 8-9 Aug took to streets of Beirut demanding justice; clashes broke out with security forces killing one police officer and reportedly injuring over 700 civilians and 70 security personnel. PM Diab 10 Aug announced resignation of his govt and blamed disaster in Beirut on corruption of political elite whom he accused of thwarting his reform efforts. Parliament 31 Aug voted diplomat Mustapha Adib as new PM and President Aoun tasked him with forming govt. French President Macron 6 Aug travelled to Beirut and vowed to provide Lebanese people with support but warned that “if reforms are not carried out, Lebanon will continue to sink”. During emergency donor conference spearheaded by France, international donors 9 Aug pledged some $250mn in humanitarian relief; International Monetary Fund (IMF) director Kristalina Georgieva 9 Aug said IMF was ready to “redouble” efforts to help Lebanon. In north, unidentified gunmen night of 21-22 Aug killed three in Kaftoun village; security forces 23-24 Aug arrested several suspects and attempted to arrest another one who reportedly blew himself up. Shiite religious banners 27 Aug triggered clashes between Shiites and Sunnis killing two in Khaldeh. Special Tribunal for Lebanon 18 Aug convicted in absentia one Hizbollah member and acquitted three others for involvement in assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri in 2005, confirming that no evidence was found implicating Hizbollah’s leadership or the Syrian regime. In south, Hizbollah 22 Aug claimed downing Israeli drone near Aita al-Shaab village; alleged cross-border attack by Hizbollah on Israeli troops night of 25-26 Aug prompted retaliatory airstrikes on Hizbollah posts. Amid surge in COVID-19 cases, caretaker govt 21 Aug imposed two-week partial lockdown and night time curfew.

Iran

U.S. triggered mechanism under UN Security Council Resolution 2231 endorsing 2015 nuclear deal to reimpose all pre-agreement UN sanctions on Iran, raising prospect that tensions could escalate in Sept. UN Security Council 14 Aug resoundingly rejected U.S. resolution aimed at indefinitely extending UN arms embargo on Iran set to expire in Oct; U.S. 20 Aug triggered “snapback” mechanism of Resolution 2231 to reinstate within 30 days all UN sanctions in place prior to Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) at midnight GMT 20 September; all remaining JCPOA parties and majority of Security Council members disputed U.S.’s legal standing to invoke “snapback”, citing U.S. withdrawal from deal in 2018. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Iran 26 Aug announced “agreement on the resolution of the safeguards implementation issues specified by the IAEA”; deal facilitates IAEA access to two sites following months-long standoff. U.S. 14 Aug announced that it had seized Iranian petroleum of four tankers bound for Venezuela; in apparent attempt to retrieve seized fuel, Iranian security forces two days earlier had briefly boarded Liberian-flagged tanker near Strait of Hormuz. U.S. 19 Aug sanctioned two United Arab Emirates (UAE)-based companies and one UAE-based Iranian national for links to U.S. blacklisted Iranian airliner. Regional tensions with both U.S. and its allies remained high: Iran 7 Aug called on UN to hold U.S. accountable for intercepting Iranian airliner in Syrian airspace in July; Israel’s army chief of staff 7 Aug said Israel had “thwarted a squad sent by Iran” during 2 Aug incident at Israel-Syria border that prompted retaliatory airstrikes. President Rouhani 15 Aug described normalisation of Israel-UAE relations as “a big mistake”; in response to Rouhani’s “inflammatory” remarks, UAE next day summoned Iranian envoy to Abu Dhabi; Emirati coast guard 17 Aug opened fire on Iranian fishermen, killing two; Iran same day seized Emirati vessel for “illegally entering Iranian waters” and 18 Aug summoned UAE’s envoy to Tehran over fishermen’s killing. Atomic Energy Organization of Iran 23 Aug said July explosion at Natanz nuclear facility was result of “sabotage”. Guardian Council 24 Aug scheduled presidential elections for June 2021.