Somalia is irrelevant to the world except for what the world can draw from its location and to some extent from its natural resources, the latter mostly untapped and hence of very little value at present, but potentially a huge wealth reservoir. The country and its people appear to have no value for the West or for the East and both seem to prefer it chaotic and conflicted. It is most disturbing to note that Somalis, be they unionists or secessionists, over-inflating their importance to the rest of the world. But the world sees them only as pawns of very little value in its intricate webs of deceits and deceptions!
Contrary to the needs of the Somali of whatever political hue, religious or otherwise, the world only sees value in a conflicted Somalia. The long duration of the continuing conflict in the country spanning over four decades, clearly evidences that the world is not interested in a peaceful Somalia.
On the other side of the algorithm, since the world is interested only in a conflicted Somalia, the world, therefore, plays major roles in keeping the country and people disturbed and at each other’s throats, ignoring the fact that they are of the same ethnic background, with the same culture, tongue and religion.
A unified Somalia would be more of an anathema and hence an antonym to what the world wants from Somalia – A disturbed, violent and restless place, with its people running away to be as widely spread across the world as is possible.
But what does a unified Somalia represent?
It represents some 1.3 million square km of land space, a maritime space of nearly a million square km, a population of over seventy million homogenous people and this will encompass the state of Djibouti (Ex-French Somaliland), the current Federal Republic of Somalia, The Somali State of Ethiopia (over a third of Ethiopia in its east on the borders with present-day Somalia), The NFD (a third of Kenya on the East and North East of the country), and the Socotra archipelago at the mouth of the Gulf of Aden, but which currently is part of Yemen and is reported to be under the control of the UAE.
It represents a key space in global security architecture, as it sits on a major geostrategic location, linking the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean. It is close to the current source of most energy (oil and gas) for the world, the Arabian Gulf. It is also a major gateway to the heart of Africa.
No wonder the country is divided already and its is being sub-divided continuously. Clan fiefdoms now act as separate states within even the Somali Federal Republic, while Somalis beyond are being absorbed into other states like Ethiopia and Kenya with Djibouti having already being given a full sovereign nation status, to stand on its own.
The world’s powers now maintain military presence in the Somali space, and, in particular, in Djibouti where both the West and the East have naval and military bases. Somalia also maintains American and Turkish bases while many Arab countries finance auxiliary forces in the Somali space. India is increasing its naval presence in the Indian Ocean which separates it from the Somali space. The presence of terror groups in the Somali space also appears to be implants, which is used as a justification for the growing military presence of others in the Somali country.
What could be the economic Interests of the world in the Somali Space?
Obviously, global trade comes to the fore as the Somali country overlooks, on the western side, the immensely important Suez Canal/Indian Ocean waterway, which handles some twelve percent of global trade and more specifically an important part of oil and gas, which is now an essential part of daily human life in terms of transportation, construction, pharmaceuticals, health and beautification, clothing, electronics, furniture, fixtures and decorations, toys and agriculture and limitless other applications.
But more important is the potential presence of a significant volume of natural resources in the Somali country. These are said to be oil and gas, uranium, gold, cobalt and many others needed for the technologies of today and tomorrow. That the region is conflicted and unstable appears to be the preference of the powers that be in the world today and the other countries that serve them.
The fact that Turkey is working on exploring for oil and gas in the Indian Ocean coast of Somalia has already disturbed other countries and the increase of their influences over the terror groups, who have increased their activities in the recent months, appears to evidence, that many countries do not want the exploitation of the resources of the country under the present circumstances, as it is not in their interest.
Why is the Somali country being continually fragmented?
The Somali country was already fragmented towards the end of he nineteenth century and as pointed out earlier, only two parts came back together in 1960 to form the current Federal Republic of Somalia. The other parts are either separate countries or are parts of other states in the region. The growing concern is the continuing fragmentation of the Somali Federal Republic into clan fiefdoms, who all have the symbols of new nations under formation, pointing to the possibility of an additional fragmentation of the country.
The support being given to the various factions by differing groups worsens the situation in the Somali landscape. It is most unfortunate that the current political class of the Somali appear to be puppets being bought and sold through meager amounts, much like the slave drivers of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. It is most disheartening to note they sell their own country and people.
Many financiers (other countries) maintain footholds in the country through these puppet regimes and terror groups in the various states, including the federal government, which appears to be the rule of one man always in the air, the most travelled president on the globe despite the poverty of his nation and people. He should find a place for himself in the Guinness Book of World Records as the “Most Flying President.”
Is it time for Somalis to realize that the fate of their country and their people are in their hands?
Yes, it is. However, the current political class, as corrupt as they are and as clan minded as they appear to have been made, more so than their ancestor predecessors, will not be able to make any moves in that direction. The silent majority, however, know that the world wants Somalia to be continually conflicted, and it is on their onus to reverse the trend and make peace in the country. No one else will help them recover from the chaos and instabilities imposed on the country and people. It is the imposed poverty, the corruption, and weak rulers that have been imposed on the people and country that are the main causes of the country’s current plight.
The nation is at a defining moment in its history. Past foreign-led propositions have failed Somalia. It’s crucial for Somalis, despite their different political views like unionists and secessionists, to take control of their own destiny.
The dysfunction of the state and the chaos can only be addressed through a concerted effort, whichever direction, it may take – say secession of Somaliland or continuing merger of the original partners in the state or even a different configuration to be decided.
The latest news that the President of the Federal Republic of Somalia has called for a reconciliation conference, is perhaps only directed at those he can bribe or threaten to conform with what he wants in person to extend his weak and miserable rule.
This would be a major catastrophe for the nation, if it does not take into consideration the total Somalia issue, including Somaliland, which should not be on the sidelines anymore. Sidelining Somaliland would only contribute to the carving of the country into more splinter groups like Puntland, Southwest State or Jubaland, who will surely copy the Somaliland formula.
The important thing to note is that the failures of the past four decades have not been accidental. They have been designed to keep the nation at an imbalance, neither at peace nor at completely dismantling it.
Why do Somalis have to continue in this senseless imbalance?
It is good time that sensible Somalis, the silent majority, took the matter in their own hands to work out a plan for the nation, but in anyway different from the current turbulent, fractured and fragile state. It is quite possible for Somalis to reach consensus on their future and it is only themselves, who would be able to decide what to do with their country and the future of their children, as their ancestors used to do over millennia earlier. It is only Somalis who can put the dilemma of Somalia to rest once and for all and they should.