After more than 22 months of brutal civil war, Sudan appears to be heading toward a stalemate.
Recent gains by the government’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have yet to secure a decisive victory, while the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are attempting to cement their control over captured territories by signing a political charter aimed at establishing a parallel governing authority in the territories it controls.
United Nations Security Council members voiced concern over the Rapid Support Forces’ plans to establish a separate governing authority. Signed in Kenya by the RSF and allied groups, the charter seeks to consolidate control over large swaths of Sudan, including most of the Darfur region.
Meanwhile, the militia has escalated its violent tactics. In one of the most brutal incidents to date, RSF fighters reportedly executed at least 200 unarmed civilians, including infants, in White Nile state, an area with no SAF presence. Sudan’s foreign ministry placed the official death toll at 433.
Back in January, the United States determined that members of the RSF and allied militias had committed genocide in Sudan. The fallout of the war has resulted in the world’s largest humanitarian catastrophe, according to the U.S. State Department.
SAF Continues to Capture Key Territories
Meanwhile, in recent weeks, the SAF has made significant gains by capturing critical territories in the capital of Khartoum, including their military headquarters that had been encircled by the RSF. These advances are particularly crucial, as the capital has been under RSF control since the early days of the war. The SAF has also captured nearly all of the Gezira state, another crucial battleground.
War Has Invited Foreign Intervention
In addition to dividing the country and prompting a humanitarian crisis, the war has also invited foreign intervention. The United States has accused Russia of funding both warring parties while pursuing a naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast to gain access to key Horn of Africa trade routes. Meanwhile, Iran has supported the SAF with drones.
Regional powers are also advancing their own interests. Egypt has publicly backed the SAF, aligning with Sudan’s ruler, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, over the Nile dispute with Ethiopia and securing its border with Sudan. Saudi Arabia is aligned with Egypt in backing al-Burhan. The United Arab Emirates, on the other hand, has provided significant support to the RSF, viewing its commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – widely known as Hemedti – as the custodian of Sudan’s gold exports and the path to its plans for port development along the Red Sea coast.
Washington Should Leverage Allies
The latest developments in this conflict further expose the risks of U.S. inaction, underscoring the urgent need for Washington to change course. The strategy should be twofold: apply pressure and realign interests.
First, Washington must continue to target the RSF’s financial networks and weapons supply chains in a concerted effort to further weaken the militia. At the same time, it should pressure the SAF to sever ties with Iran and Russia. While the SAF faces U.S. sanctions, it remains more susceptible to U.S. leverage, particularly through regional allies like Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Second, Washington should align the interests of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Despite divisions, all three share a common concern: preventing the resurgence of an Islamist regime in Sudan. By leveraging this shared concern, the United States can align its regional partners’ strategies to protect their security and economic interests.
The United States need not choose sides. By empowering regional allies instead, Washington can push for a ceasefire, shape Sudan’s post-war landscape, counter adversaries, and project its strategic vision without direct entanglement.