Analysis: Egypt has signed a military pact with Somalia and will deploy peacekeeping troops next year. But is Cairo playing with fire?

Rapid developments in Egyptian-Somali relations culminated in the signing of a military cooperation protocol between both countries in Cairo in mid-August.

The agreement was preceded by an understanding between Mogadishu and Cairo to deploy Egyptian forces as part of an African peacekeeping force in Somalia, which is scheduled to begin its mission next year.

Egypt’s involvement in the Somali crisis through military and security support has raised concerns among many observers about its potential geopolitical impact.

This is especially significant at a time when tensions are escalating between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, casting a dark shadow over the Horn of Africa region.

The crisis ignited when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with the self-declared republic of Somaliland to lease part of its coastline in return for Addis Ababa recognising the region’s independence.

Ethiopia plans to build a naval base on the land, with Mogadishu viewing the recognition of Somaliland as a direct violation of its sovereignty.
War of words

During his second visit to Cairo this year, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud signed a military cooperation protocol with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on 14 August, accompanied by Sisi’s confirmation of his country’s support for “the unity and sovereignty of Somalia over its territory, and its rejection of any interference in its internal affairs.”

The Ethiopian response came quickly. Several days later, the Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian National Defence Forces, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, said that “some parties” are trying to appear as defenders of Somalia’s interests, despite their absence when Ethiopia was making sacrifices to stabilise Somalia.

The military leader was likely referring to Ethiopia’s participation in an African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission in Somalia, which recently returned after completing its duties in the country.

“We are the people of the region, we care about its security and stability, and we will not stand idly by in the face of any attempt to destabilise it,” Jula was quoted as saying by Ethiopia’s Fana Broadcasting Corporate.

Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nebiyu Tedla indicated that the Egypt-Somalia agreement “does not worry Addis Ababa,” but stressed the need for “careful deployment” of the upcoming African Union mission in Somalia “to avoid unnecessary misunderstandings and unexpected regional tensions”.

He emphasised the importance of considering the opinions and concerns of countries currently contributing troops to Somalia to ensure an effective transition to a post-African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) mission.

Military and security cooperation

Egyptian national security expert Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahed told The New Arab that Egypt’s moves in the Horn of Africa were “pre-emptive” and designed to protect Egyptian national security in a strategic region which is facing numerous security threats.

These include separatism, cross-border crime, international competition, and tension in the southern Red Sea, “which directly affects the Suez Canal,” he added.

The specific terms of the protocol have not been announced yet. However, according to the Egyptian expert in international affairs and national security, they will involve enhancing military and security cooperation, joint defence efforts, collaboration in military and intelligence operations, combating terrorism and organised crime, as well as sharing information.

In addition to the above, the agreement includes training Somali cadres and Somali forces to handle threats related to protecting and defending their territory. Additionally, “it provides training for groups to combat terrorism, particularly in light of the increasing activity of the Al-Shabab movement”, Abdel Wahed told The New Arab.

Somalia suffers from several security threats, most notably from Al-Shabab, which is classified as a terrorist organisation and whose activity has recently intensified. Somali forces are unable to defeat it on their own, which has necessitated the presence of an African mission to support stability in the country for 18 years, in which Ethiopian forces have always played a noticeable role.

Mogadishu submitted a memorandum to the African Peace and Security Council to form a new African mission to succeed the current one, as its duties end at the end of this year. The move was interpreted by some observers as Mogadishu’s desire to remove Ethiopian forces from the country and pave the way for Egyptian and Djiboutian forces to take their place.

Ethiopian warning

Yassin Ahmed, president of the Ethiopian Institute for Public Diplomacy, believes that Cairo’s request to be part of the African peacekeeping forces in Somalia is an attempt by Cairo to boost its African strategic depth through the Horn of Africa after four decades of absence.

This is part of an Egyptian move to enhance its regional security role and compete with Ethiopia in the region. Additionally, it is seen as part of attempts to build alliances with Addis Ababa’s neighbours to put pressure on it.

In his interview with The New Arab, Ahmed linked Egypt’s deepening role to Cairo’s efforts to exert pressure on Ethiopia regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), in which “Ethiopia has won all its diplomatic and legal battles”.

In early June, Voice of America reported a statement by Somali National Security Advisor Hassan Sheikh Ali that said “Ethiopian forces will not be part of the African Union-led forces” operating in Somalia for a year starting in January 2025.

The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman announced in a recent press conference that his country will take immediate decisions to protect its national security without seeking permission from anyone, indicating that Ethiopia may intervene in the future in Somali territory under the pretext of protecting its security.

In a post on X, Abdul Wahab Sheikh Abdul Samad, Executive Director of the Nairobi-based Afro-Asian Institute for Strategic Studies, said Egypt plans to deploy up to 10,000 troops to Somalia, including air and ground troops equipped with heavy machinery, as part of its peacekeeping force.

He said they will be stationed along the Ethiopian-Somali border in the Gedo, Hiran, and Bay Bakool regions.

A tense geopolitical context

The developments in Somalia come amid a protracted crisis in Ethiopian-Egyptian relations over the controversial Nile dam project, as years of negotiations have failed to reach an agreement satisfactory to both parties.

Observers say that Addis Ababa has managed to gain time to complete the construction of the dam and present both Khartoum and Cairo with a fait accompli.

In this context, Egyptian strategic expert Major General Mohamed Abdel Wahed believes that the Egyptian-Somali agreement is not linked to the tensions between Cairo and Ethiopia, considering it a natural extension of the Egyptian presence in Somalia since it became involved in the country’s crises in the 1990s.

However, Abbas Mohamed Saleh, a researcher in African affairs, believes that Egypt’s strengthened presence in Somalia and its recent partnership with government forces represents a major development amid competition and conflict in the region. Ethiopia, for example, views any Egyptian presence near its borders as a threat to its security and stability.

The African affairs researcher added that the defence agreement “will definitely inflame” geopolitical competition towards a more dangerous and extreme pattern, with Egyptian-Ethiopian competition already presenting as a zero-sum game.

According to Saleh, the regional conflict in Somalia may escalate into a “significant proxy war,” involving not only Egypt and Ethiopia but also other actors who may align with one of these two powers or work through local actors.

During years of Ethiopian activity in Somalia, Addis Ababa was able to build alliances with local forces and actors to ensure the continuation of its military presence, and it is anticipated that these alliances will be used to undermine Egypt’s presence in Somalia.

Potential challenges

Although there is no official information on the exact number of Egyptian soldiers who will operate in Somalia, many sources indicate that it could be in the thousands.

In a sign of the potential challenges that Egyptian forces will face in Somalia, a video attributed to the spokesman for the Somali state of Hiran has been circulating on social media platforms rejecting the deployment of Egyptian soldiers in their region.

“If foreign forces must remain in the country, then only forces coming from neighbouring Ethiopia will be here,” he said.

For his part, Yassin Ahmed, president of the Ethiopian Institute for Public Diplomacy, believes that the security agreement between Egypt and Somalia will not affect the MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland.

However, if Ethiopia doesn’t secure a sea outlet on the Somali coast as part of a compromise in ongoing Turkish-mediated talks, Addis Ababa will move forward with its Somaliland agreement.