• At least one person died this week amid ongoing anti-government protests in Kenya surrounding proposed tax hikes, adding to the toll of at least 50 fatalities and 413 injuries caused by police brutality since the protests began.
• While President Ruto discarded the tax hikes in an attempt to satisfy protestors, Kenyans’ grievances have only grown, especially as the police and military have continued to crack down violently on protestors.
• Nigeria has also faced public unrest due to economic issues, marked by rampant inflation, widespread financial suffering, and a depreciating national currency.
• Inspired by recent demonstrations in Kenya, Nigerian youth are reportedly planning nationwide protests, even as Nigerian police claim they will have no tolerance for demonstrations — setting the stage for a potentially violent outcome.

At least one person died on July 16 amid ongoing anti-government protests in Kenya, adding to the toll of at least 50 fatalities and 413 injuries caused by police brutality since the demonstrations began. This youth-led movement, which has gripped the nation for weeks, was initially sparked by a proposed plan for $2.7 billion in tax hikes. Despite Kenyan President William Ruto’s withdrawal of the controversial legislation, the resignation of the head of the Kenyan police force, and the dismissal of almost his entire cabinet, the protests have persisted, with demonstrators now calling for Ruto’s resignation. They accuse him of endemic corruption and poor governance, which they believe are at the heart of the country’s troubles.

President Ruto’s initial tax hike proposal aimed to address Kenya’s escalating debt crisis. Kenya’s public debt had soared to $80 billion, nearly three-quarters of its economic output, and 30 percent of the government’s revenue was used to pay interest. When Ruto took office in August 2022, the country was already in turmoil. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta had borrowed heavily from commercial lenders and countries like China to finance major infrastructure projects, including a rail line from Nairobi to Mombasa and 11,000 kilometers of paved roads. These high-interest loans failed to generate the expected revenue. Additionally, inflation from COVID-19 and supply chain disruptions in agriculture, worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, caused food prices and the overall cost of living to surge in 2022, further increasing Kenya’s debt burden.

Although Kenya owes a significant portion of its debt to China—$8 billion—the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remains the subject of protestors’ ire. The IMF conditioned its loans on Kenya, implementing measures such as increasing taxes, reducing subsidies, and cutting government waste to boost revenue and reduce spending. These measures began last year, and since taking office in 2022, Ruto has prioritized these measures.

The IMF backed the now-abandoned 2024 Finance Bill, which proposed the tax hikes. Protesters view Ruto as a “puppet” of the organization, which African leaders have criticized for imposing stringent conditions on loans to desperate countries, conditions that critics argue disproportionately affect the poor. African leaders, including Ruto, have also condemned international lenders for imposing unusually high interest rates on African nations compared to other developing countries. However, some experts believe African leaders are to blame for many of these issues. While IMF loans come with conditions, they argue that some leaders choose to raise taxes instead of cutting costs when asked to increase revenue and then, in turn, blame the IMF.

While Ruto discarded the 2024 Financial Bill in an attempt to satisfy protestors, Kenyans’ grievances have only grown, especially as the police and military have continued to crack down violently on protestors. In addition to the large number of injuries and casualties, 682 people have been arbitrarily detained, and 59 have been abducted or are missing, according to the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights. Ruto’s government announced plans for “multi-sectoral” talks to hopefully quell protests, but they have not yet begun, and it is unclear if they ever will. Most leading activists have also indicated no interest in participating in talks with the government, advocating for immediate action to address issues like corruption.

Although major domestic leaders have stepped down or were dismissed, many Kenyans believe Ruto is at the core of the country’s corruption and violence. Ruto has had a controversial past. In 2007, he was charged by the International Criminal Court for his involvement in ethnic violence that resulted in the deaths of 1,000 people following a disputed election. Since taking office, he has been accused of using excessive force against dissenters, raising concerns among observers about a potential return to the “dark days of repression” in Kenya.

With regard to the current protests, Ruto has defended the government’s actions, blaming protesters rather than the police for the recent violence. On Monday, he accused the U.S.-based Ford Foundation of funding the protests and inciting violence, a claim the foundation has denied. Protesters maintain that their demonstrations have been peaceful and attribute the violence to military and police interventions.

While the debt crisis has rocked Kenyan domestic stability, fellow regional hegemon, Nigeria, has also faced public unrest due to similar economic issues, albeit with much less violence. Nigeria is currently enduring its worst economic downturn in decades, marked by rampant inflation and a depreciating national currency. Previously Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria is now expected to fall to fourth place, behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria.

The crisis in Nigeria has led to widespread suffering, with unions striking over meager wages, deadly stampedes for free food, and hospitals overcrowded with malnutrition cases. Over the past nine months, the price of gas has tripled, and staple food items like rice have more than doubled in cost. With wages stagnant, many Nigerians struggle to afford basic necessities. Similar to Kenya, this crisis has been exacerbated by lingering inflation from COVID-19 and global supply chain disruptions mainly caused by the war in Ukraine.

The economic troubles are primarily attributed to policies enacted by the current president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who took office 15 months ago. Tinubu removed fuel subsidies to allow the currency to float, which has caused substantial price increases. In April 2021, Nigeria entered into an agreement with the IMF to address its growing debt. This program is designed to help stabilize the economy and attract private-sector investment, providing $3.9 billion in funding and a $542 million climate fund. The IMF required Nigeria to implement tax increases, reduce subsidies, and cut government waste to boost revenue and cut costs. Despite these measures, the country’s economic outlook remains challenging, especially considering the toll it has taken on the average Nigerian citizen.

Some experts suggest that protests similar to those in Kenya are increasingly likely in Nigeria, with a high potential for escalation. Inspired by recent demonstrations in Kenya, Nigerian youth are reportedly planning nationwide protests. In response, the government announced the distribution of rice to all 36 states to alleviate hunger. However, protest leaders view this as an insufficient “distraction.” Tinubu’s refusal to cut governance costs has further alienated suffering Nigerians, particularly as the administration plans to spend significant sums on a new presidential jet and a residence for the vice president.

The police have taken a hard stance, stating no protests will be allowed and increasing security around critical infrastructure, setting the stage for a potentially violent outcome similar to developments in Kenya. Despite the police’s claims, activists remain undeterred, continuing to call for protests and drawing inspiration from Tinubu’s past support for protest rights when he was in the opposition. Both Nigeria and Kenya play a vital role in African stability, including politically and economically. Both countries have served as transportation hubs for West and East Africa, for example. Thus, the escalating crises in both countries are a foreboding sign of potential regional instability.