Somalia’s motivations don’t automatically translate into action, however, but reflect wishful thinking on its leadership’s part. They also explain to Somalians why their country is giving Turkiye maritime security rights and 30% of the revenue from their rich blue water resources in a deal that amounts to becoming its modern-day protectorate while everyone else is strengthening their sovereignty.
Somalian Defense Committee member and parliamentarian Mursal M. Khaliif contradicted President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s (HSM) claim that their country’s newly approved maritime security deal with Turkiye isn’t aimed against any third parties. Although the details haven’t been publicly confirmed, Somalian outlet Garowe Online reported that it’ll give Turkiye 30% of the revenue from Somalia’s rich blue water resources in exchange for building its navy and defending it from vague threats for 10 years.
HSM claimed that “It’s just a coincidence” that the supposedly long-negotiated agreement was finally reached after tensions with Ethiopia boiled over following Addis’ clinching of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland on the first of the year but few observers actually believe him. Khaliif’s tweet on Wednesday implied that the intent is to pit Turkiye against Ethiopia and Russia when he wrote the following alongside pictures of the Somalian & Turkish and Ethiopian & Russian leaders:
“A Tale of Two Leaders:
In order to defend the sovereignty of his nation, whilst fighting global terrorism, @HassanSMohamud chose to align with @RTErdogan, a member of @NATO.
On the other hand, @AbiyAhmedAli embarked on an annexation adventure, the very day he joined #BRICS in order to gain a naval base for his mentor.
@JohnJamesMI @SaraJacobsCA
@HouseForeignGOP @StateDept
@HouseForeign @POTUS
NotAnInch”
This comes shortly after the US and Somalia reached an agreement in mid-February to build five bases, which itself occurred just half a month after HSM ranted against Russia while in Italy despite that country literally feeding his people for free with two pro bono wheat shipments thus far. The Somalian leader also suggested that Russia was the so-called “hidden hand” that he speculated about being behind the MoU, with Khaliif’s tweet extending credence to that interpretation, especially via his chosen images.
The back-to-back American and Turkish security deals essentially make Somalia a joint protectorate of those two, with the latter being the senior partner surprisingly enough due to it reportedly being able to reap 30% of the revenue from that country’s rich blue water resources over the next decade. This subordinate status was agreed to on the false pretext that Ethiopia is plotting to annex Somaliland via the MoU as part of a larger New Cold War game in the region that’s allegedly orchestrated by Russia.
America will always provide support to any state that claims to be facing a so-called “Russia threat” or just implies it, the notion of which HSM introduced into the official discourse during his trip in Italy and Khaliif then laundered in his tweet, while Turkiye’s intentions in this respect are different. Although Russia is its historical rival with whom a dozen wars were fought, relations are better than ever due to them pragmatically managing disagreements in third countries like Syria, Libya, and Ukraine.
From Turkiye’s strategic perspective, it can solidify its growing influence in Africa by assuming control over Somalia’s maritime security in exchange for building that country’s navy and reaping 30% of the profits from its rich blue water resources. Since there’s no truth to HSM and Khaliif’s lies that Russia had any role in the MoU, there’s nothing to worry about regarding the scenario of it and Turkiye clashing in the Horn, especially since they successfully managed not to do so in Syria where they both have troops.
It’s also premature to speculate that Turkiye agreed to stop Ethiopia from implementing the military dimension of its MoU with Somaliland by doing whatever Mogadishu demands in order to stop Addis from opening up a naval base there. Bilateral relations are excellent as proven by their high-level military-technical cooperation during the 2020-2022 Northern Conflict and mutually beneficial investments. It’s therefore illogical that Turkiye would destroy all of that just for Somalia’s sake.
Nevertheless, the Associated Press is trying to drive a wedge between those two over this maritime security deal as proven by the headline of its recent article dramatically declaring that “Somalia announces deal with Turkey to deter Ethiopia’s access to sea through a breakaway region”. Its subsequent republication by leading US outlets like ABC News and Fox News hints at the existence of a “plausibly deniable” information warfare campaign aimed at dividing-and-ruling those two.
Considering this pernicious narrative context, Turkiye would do well to either publicly clarify the terms of this deal or at the very least task its diplomats to discretely brief their Ethiopian counterparts about it in order to dispel any misperceptions about their country’s intentions. It also wouldn’t hurt to brief their Russian counterparts too after what Somalian Defense Committee member Khaliif just tweeted. What he did was very undiplomatic and revealed his government’s intentions to pit Turkiye against those two.
Somalia’s motivations don’t automatically translate into action, however, but reflect wishful thinking on its leadership’s part. They also explain to Somalians why their country is giving Turkiye maritime security rights and 30% of the revenue from their rich blue water resources in a deal that amounts to becoming its modern-day protectorate while everyone else is strengthening their sovereignty. So long as Turkiye avoids Somalia’s divide-and-rule traps, which it’s expected to do, nobody has anything to worry about.