Qatari penetration in Libya said to have been facilitated by rival intelligence’s ineptitude.
Several visits to Doha by Libyan officials of the Government of National Accord (GNA) and prominent leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya brought the Qatari role in Libya back to the fore once again, amid serious concerns about the motives behind these visits at a time when the pace of political and military dialogue between the Libyan parties in search of a settlement has accelerated.
These visits also revealed the weakness if not the lethargy of counter-intelligence apparatus of the rival camp in monitoring Qatari moves and thwarting Doha’s plans to penetrate deeply into the Libyan landscape and circumvent the political track.
Through its new approach, the Qatari-Brotherhood alliance is reinforcing its gains of the past few years in Libya and hopes to achieve a shift on the ground. The aim of the alliance is ultimately to enable Doha and Ankara to push their agendas amid the growing momentum of regional and international efforts aimed at providing a real opportunity for the Libyans to agree on a political settlement.
“The visits of Qatari and Libyan officials to both countries are continuing and have never stopped,” Khaled al-Mishri, head of the State’s Supreme Advisory Council in Libya, confirmed after his latest visit to Doha.
Mishri’s visit to Doha was preceded by similar visits by a number of GNA ministers, including Foreign Minister Mohamed Sayala and Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha. GNA Defence Minister Salah al-Din al-Nimroush is scheduled to fly to Doha this week for follow up talks on the implementation of a security memorandum of understanding signed a few days ago between Qatar and the Sarraj government in Libya.
Analysts saw in those visits the introduction of new political and security arrangements for the next stage. Talal al-Mihoub, head of the Defence and National Security Committee of the Libyan House of Representatives, did not hesitate to say that “the goal of these visits is clear and obvious to all, and it is to disrupt the ceasefire agreement reached by the 5+5 Joint Military Committee in Geneva, Switzerland.”
Speaking to The Arab Weekly by phone from the city of Benghazi in eastern Libya, Mihoub considered this attempt—which he described as “desperate”—to be doomed to fail, “because the Libyans are determined to put an end to the Qatari as well as the Turkish roles in Libya, and to get rid of their overt and covert tools,” referring to militias and organisations loyal to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Such a view is shared by Libyan parliamentarian Ali al-Takbali, who said, in a phone conversation with The Arab Weekly, that “these Qatari moves come at a time when serious attempts are being made to find a platform for compromises that pave the way to reconciliation between Libyans, which means that their aim is to thwart those efforts and any attempt at reconciliation.”
Other sources highlighted additional goals to those stated by Mihoub and Takbali. They saw that Qatar was seeking by its moves to anticipate the results of the Libyan dialogue sessions by rearranging its cards in Libya so as to ensure the continuation of its role and influence in the upcoming Libyan political scene that will be shaped by the results of the current political track, and put in place factors allowing it to complete its project in Libya.
On the other hand, observers expressed their surprise at the weakness and laxity of the Libyan intelligence in monitoring these moves and uncovering them, especially since Qatar has been able to have a presence in Libya throughout this year without drawing attention to it.
Mishri revealed in his statements that several bilateral meetings between the two sides took place in several countries, which prompted Ali al-Takbali to implicitly acknowledge such a failure in counter-intelligence work. “There is no real monitoring of these movements and of people who travel between Qatar and Turkey to receive subversive orders, then return to Libya to impose them on everybody,” Takbali said.
He attributed this to what he described as the “scattering of intelligence services,” with the exception of the Military Intelligence, which he said is carrying out its duty correctly, warning at the same time against the dire consequences to Libya’s national security of maintaining this state of laxity in counter-intelligence work. “Those making these moves will end up selling Libya completely to foreigners,” he said.
Talal al-Mihoub, on the other hand, sought to downplay the opinion that the emergence of the Qatari role these days and in this dangerous manner was due to the weakness or laxity of the Libyan intelligence monitoring operations, stressing that the Qatari intelligence role in western Libya is out in the open and known to everyone, and cannot be ignored or covered up.
“The Qataris and the Turks move unfettered in those areas, which, by the way, also include other areas in neighbouring countries, taking advantage of several factors, but they are not present in eastern Libya, and they will not be able to sneak in because the Libyan National Army and its apparatus will be on the lookout for them, and they will thwart all their movements,” he said.
Mihoub expressed his confidence in an imminent end to the Qatari and Turkish roles in Libya.
Libyan political and military circles agree that failing to address these developments will inevitably lead to the accumulation of additional factors that will nourish the Qatari and Turkish roles and enable them to influence the course of events and their concomitant political, security and military results.