Maintaining the ceasefire in Gaza will be more difficult if Yemen erupts into conflict once again.

After several months away from the spotlight, Yemen is back in the headlines. The country’s civil war is entering a dangerous new phase, as separatist forces in the south expand their power at the expense of their fragile anti-Houthi alliance. The problem is intensified by the competing influences of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

This regional power struggle is becoming kinetic. Yesterday’s Saudi airstrikes against UAE assets in Yemen have forced Abu Dhabi to withdraw its forces from the country. Meanwhile, Houthi threats against a potential Israeli presence in Somaliland risk turning the Red Sea back into a shooting range.

A resumption of full-scale conflict here could upset regional objectives and tempt the United States to respond with military force. Instead, President Donald Trump should take his penchant for unconventional diplomacy and push for an end to the civil war in Yemen.

The escalation in Yemen stems from a foundational flaw in the local anti-Houthi coalition. The internationally recognized government in Yemen is the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which was formed in 2022 to help consolidate the remaining anti-Houthi factions to engage the rebel group as a united front in peace talks, and is backed by Saudi Arabia. However, one faction, the Southern Transitional Council, supported by the UAE, has maintained its secessionist objective to create an independent South Yemen.

The STC’s move to consolidate power in the south, justified as anti-terror operations, drew condemnation from the PLC, and the temporary closure of Yemen’s airspace by the Saudis. As the STC contemplates declaring independence, it is positioning itself as the primary anti-Houthi faction, calling for support from the United States. The Saudi’s have since bombed STC positions in the Hadramout region after they refused to withdraw.

The situation escalated on Tuesday when the Saudi’s struck a shipment from the UAE in Yemen’s Mukalla port, which the Saudi’s claimed contained weapons for the STC, and placed a 24-hour deadline for the UAE to withdraw troops from Yemen. This coincided with the declaration that the STC’s offensive, which the UAE instigated (as the Saudis claim), crossed a red line for its national security, and that “the steps taken by the UAE are considered highly dangerous.” While the UAE has announced a withdrawal of its remaining forces, the situation remains volatile, and the Houthis could exploit the fracturing coalition.

The Houthis have receded from global attention since their campaign in the Red Sea was paused to coincide with the Gaza ceasefire. Operation Rough Rider, the US bombing campaign this past spring, succeeded in getting the Houthis to stop attacking American ships. But only the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has convinced the Houthis to break from attacking all ships in the Red Sea and Israel itself. Campaigns against the Houthis came with a significant price tag and exposed the difficulties plaguing US naval operations. Rough Rider cost nearly $5 billion, expended significant portions of expensive munitions, saw seven drones shot down, and lost three fighter jets in accidents.

The Houthis’ pause in striking Israel or Red Sea shipping is not guaranteed to last. A prolonged disruption to the Gaza ceasefire, or Israeli positioning in Somaliland, could give the Houthis a perceived cause to attack Israel. They could also renew their campaign in the Red Sea to extort money from shipping companies or hostages to fund their war efforts if the civil war reignites. The Houthis have proven to be resilient after years of conflict and foreign interventions, so despite the risk, they may be willing to take these actions if motivated.

The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy states that keeping the Red Sea open to commerce is a core interest for the United States in the Middle East. It also recognizes that years of intervention in the Middle East have been a disaster for American interests. While the Red Sea is a critical global trade route, its importance for American trade is limited and far more crucial to Asian and European trade.

This presents a challenge for the Trump administration. The Gaza peace process, one of the Trump administration’s top priorities in the region, has survived several disruptions and appears to be advancing toward its second phase. Given its importance to the administration, an emerging crisis that threatens this progression would likely merit its attention and, potentially, a military response.

The Trump administration should instead attempt to end tensions in Yemen by seeking a settlement to end the civil war. The administration has made great use of its leverage in the region to secure several notable agreements. And its interactions with groups like Hamas and the Houthis themselves have already broken taboos on dealing with unsociable groups.

The administration should build on its diplomatic momentum and begin discussions with the relevant actors in Yemen to determine what could bring them to an understanding. It also needs to convey America’s interests: an agreement to end the civil war, the release of the Houthis’ hostages, and the continued safe passage for American ships through the Red Sea. The statement on the situation by Secretary of State Marco Rubio last week set a good precedent, emphasizing “restraint and continued diplomacy.” But with Saudi Arabia and the UAE now coming to blows, a more direct diplomatic engagement is warranted.

The result may be a fractured Yemen, but as others have pointed out, the modern state of Yemen was a defective enterprise from the beginning, and it may be time to come to terms with that reality. This move would continue the administration’s record of accepting an unfortunate status quo for the sake of stability and the opportunities it brings, rather than pursuing an impractical goal that may cost more American blood and treasure. It would also end, or at least postpone, a clash between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

While success is not guaranteed, an imperfect peace in Yemen would benefit stability in the Middle East far more than a renewed conflict, and it would suit the Trump administration to take pre-emptive diplomatic action. The peace process in Gaza is more likely to succeed when missiles and drones aren’t flying, or when two of its key players aren’t engaged in a proxy war against each other. Let the Yemen civil war be the next conflict that the “president of peace” ends.