US President Donald J. Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to begin his Gulf tour, which will also include visits to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

While meeting with high-ranking officials in these three Gulf Cooperation Council members, he will address a host of sensitive regional and global issues. One of them will be Yemen.

A major diplomatic development unfolded on 6 May when the US and Ansar Allah (a.k.a. the Houthis) entered into a ceasefire agreement negotiated under Omani auspices. Under this arrangement, the US will cease its bombing campaign, Operation Rough Rider, which began in mid-March.

The Houthis, in turn, will stop all their maritime attacks on US targets in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab, and the Gulf of Aden.

Both the Trump administration and the Houthis have had their own narratives about this pact, demonstrating that their own side came out on top.

The White House’s line is that the US bombing campaign successfully forced Ansar Allah into capitulating, while the Houthis maintain that Washington failed to achieve its objectives and needed this pact to pull itself out of a trap.

Nonetheless, Trump explained his decision to take the Houthis at their word and give them a chance to honour the ceasefire. Then he went on to speak of their resolve.

“We hit them very hard. They had a great capacity to withstand punishment,” said Trump one day after Washington and the Houthis entered into the pact. “You could say there’s a lot of bravery there,” he added.

Regional countries such as Qatar and Kuwait quickly came out with statements expressing their support for the ceasefire, as well as their hopes that Red Sea security will soon be restored.

This pact is “definitely a good thing,” explained Dr Nabeel Khoury, the former deputy chief of mission at the US Embassy in Yemen.

He told The New Arab that the arrangement stops “what was a vicious bombing campaign that was harming Yemeni civilians, depleting US stockpiles of sensitive weapons while achieving nothing of lasting value”.
What about Israel?

This agreement came in the aftermath of escalating hostilities between Ansar Allah and Israel. Only two days before the ceasefire’s announcement, the Houthis struck within the vicinity of Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport with a ballistic missile, resulting in several light injuries and interrupting international flights into Israel.

The following day, Israel responded with a major strike, which “fully disabled” the airport in Sanaa.

One important aspect of the US-Houthi pact is that it does not involve Israel. Shortly after the announcement of this ceasefire agreement between Washington and Ansar Allah, Mahdi al-Mashat, the head of Yemen’s Houthi Supreme Political Council, declared that Houthi attacks on Israel would continue as a form of support for Palestinians in Gaza.

“The agreement did not include limitations on Houthi attacks on Israel and shocked the Israelis since Trump had not bothered to consult or even inform the Israelis. For the Houthis to cease those attacks, it likely requires an end to Israel’s slaughter and ethnic cleansing in Gaza. This suggests that Trump’s commitment to Israel on matters that negatively affect US security is very fragile,” explained Dr Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, in an interview with TNA.

“The Israelis are understandably shocked, particularly since this [pact] came after the Houthis successfully struck Ben Gurion Airport and demonstrated the inefficiency of Israel’s updated anti-aircraft systems,” he added.

The deal was not a “genuine ceasefire” but instead more of a “tactical arrangement,” according to Veena Ali-Khan, a fellow at the Century Foundation.

“If anything, it has intensified hostilities between Israel and the Houthis. The Houthis have been explicit in reserving the right to resume attacks at will, stressing that their agreement with the US has no bearing on their military campaign against Israel. They underscored this by escalating strikes in the days that followed, with Israel intercepting Houthi missiles en route to its territory,” she told TNA.

From the Houthi perspective, the truce affirms the effectiveness of their military strategy, giving Ansar Allah what it considers a strategic victory. Put simply, by targeting international shipping, they compelled the United States to engage in negotiations without making any concessions regarding Israel.

According to their narrative, this marks the humiliation of a global superpower and a strategic triumph that allows them to now shift their attention toward Israel.

“They openly celebrate their role in deepening tensions between Trump and [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, continue to frame themselves as defenders of Palestine, and claim the ceasefire as a win that strengthens their position on the regional stage. Houthi media has even boasted that they are inspirations for powers like China in how they confronted the US,” explained Ali-Khan.

‘America First’ in practice

Operation Rough Rider had cost the US over $1 billion. During this nearly two-month operation, Ansar Allah shot down seven American drones shot down and two $67 million F/A-18 Super Hornets tumbled off a flagship aircraft carrier and sank in the sea.

Reluctant to be drawn into another protracted Middle Eastern conflict, Trump concluded that the operation was failing to deliver results within a reasonable timeframe.

Having campaigned against costly, unwinnable military entanglements in the region, he seemed intent on pulling the plug. By 5 May, the White House abruptly ordered US Central Command to “pause” all offensive operations against Ansar Allah.

“This agreement comes at a critical time and embodies the Trump administration’s ‘America First’ policy, even, to the surprise of many, with its key ally in the region, Israel,” Merissa Khurma, a non-resident fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, told TNA.

“It not only prioritises America’s national security interests in a bold manner and through diplomacy, it also puts pressure on Israel which initially viewed President Trump as ‘the best US President’ Israel can ask for and where perhaps they thought there will be complete US-Israeli alignment on all issues pertaining to Iran, which remains to be the Houthis principal patron,” she added.

“Clearly, Trump is not beholden to Israel in the manner that Biden was, even though he has unfortunately continued Biden’s no-restrictions policy in Gaza,” commented Dr Parsi.

The Israelis, now blindsided and shaken by the US-Houthi pact, find themselves caught off guard.

“To Israel, it was a blunt manifestation of Trump’s ‘America First’ doctrine, carried out with little regard for traditional allies. The Israelis are learning the same tough lessons that the Saudis learnt in 2019 – the US will always put its own security first, even if that comes at the expense of its partners. But the only difference is that while Riyadh responded by turning to diplomacy, Israel is choosing escalation,” explained Ali-Khan.
The role of Iran talks

The Trump administration’s diplomacy with Iran was highly relevant to this new agreement between the US and Ansar Allah. Although the Houthis had their own interests in agreeing to this ceasefire, experts note that Iran’s influence over Ansar Allah was a critical factor making this agreement between Washington and the Yemeni rebel movement possible.

There is a high probability that the US-Houthi pact will add some degree of momentum to the American-Iranian nuclear talks.

Tehran understands that many officials in Washington maintain an understanding of the Houthis as merely an Iranian “proxy” and, therefore, while Iran denies having operational control over the Yemeni movement, the Islamic Republic’s leadership had an incentive to coordinate this ceasefire with the Houthis to minimise the risk of the nuclear talks being derailed.

“The US-Houthi deal represents a degree of goodwill from Iran and suggests that Tehran may eventually be open to discussions that go beyond the nuclear file. Though officials maintain that they stayed out of the situation, there are strong indications that Iran quietly encouraged the Houthis to stand down, which shows Iran can play a more constructive regional role if it chooses to,” Ali-Khan told TNA.

“I see the ceasefire as primarily occurring in the context of the US-Iranian nuclear negotiations. Without those talks, even if the Houthis decided to pull back from the confrontation and stop or greatly reduce their provocations, it’s unlikely that anything as formal as a ceasefire – however tenuous and fragile – would have been agreed with Washington,” Dr Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said in TNA interview.

“An Arab diplomat told me that Trump’s agreement with the Houthis could not have occurred had it not been for three rounds of successful US-Iran talks,” relayed Dr Parsi.

“Iranian officials have already stated that it was Iran that exercised influence over the Houthis to accept this ceasefire. It is a card they played constructively to lubricate the wheels of the nuclear talks, which they certainly prefer over any military option against their nuclear program, especially given Netanyahu’s … keenness on a military strike,” explained Khurma.

“It’s very helpful for the talks and, from Washington’s point of view, appears to be an overture by the Iranians – whether they really ordered this or not, though I suspect they did – and a taste of good things come if an agreement can be reached,” said Dr Ibish in response to a question about this ceasefire’s potential impact on Washington-Tehran nuclear diplomacy.

“The extreme disruption to shipping in the Red Sea and other menaces conversely serve as a demonstration of one reason why an agreement with Iran is very much in US interest, even beyond the nuclear weapons issue,” he added.

Dr Parsi has a similar perspective. “This shows that even short of reaching a nuclear agreement, US-Iran talks have a lot of positive externalities for US national security. This agreement will also likely add to the momentum in the nuclear talks,” he noted in a TNA interview.

Nonetheless, as much as the US-Houthi pact can help keep the American-Iranian nuclear talks on track, the many spoilers which can occur highlight the extent to which diplomacy between Washington and Tehran remains fragile.

“A major escalation in the Houthi-Israel conflict – or an Israeli decision to hit Iranian nuclear facilities directly – could derail talks completely. Timing is everything – and right now may be Israel’s best window to strike Iran. With no agreement yet on the table and US-Iran discussions still in their early stages, Washington could find itself backing Netanyahu by default if Tel Aviv strikes first,” explained Ali-Khan.

Houthi-Israeli hostilities moving forward

Although Netanyahu’s government and right-wing elements in Israel are unhappy with the Trump administration’s decision to agree to this ceasefire, the White House is unlikely to rein in Tel Aviv as it continues waging military operations against the Houthis.

Therefore, the military confrontations between Ansar Allah and Israel are set to continue. In fact, they stand a good chance of escalating with the Israelis probably determined to intensify their strikes on important Yemeni economic infrastructure as part of a sustained effort to cut off Ansar Allah’s sources of funding.

“I think Israel will continue its attempts to degrade Houthi military capabilities and perhaps its leadership, along the lines they pursued with Hezbollah. It will be more difficult for them to be sure, given the geography and Houthi tactics and strategies,” said Dr Khoury.

Indeed, there is good reason to doubt Israel’s ability to effectively deter the Houthis from further attacks on Israel. Mindful of everything that Ansar Allah has endured since March 2015, when the Saudi-led military campaign began, the Houthis have repeatedly demonstrated a remarkable capacity to adapt and endure. This has been so even under sustained and overwhelming pressure.

“Forty-five days of massive American bombardment did not succeed in deterring the Houthis. It is very unlikely that the Israelis will be able to achieve it on their own,” argued Dr Parsi.

Israel’s approach to the Houthis mirrors its broader post-7 October 2023 military posture in Syria, southern Lebanon, the West Bank, and especially Gaza. An intensive ‘never again’ security mindset, which is fundamentally expansionist, drives this doctrine,” noted Khurma.

“The Israeli attacks have so far destroyed critical infrastructure for humanitarian aid and killed many Yemeni civilians, who are already suffering from a dire humanitarian crisis. Yemeni experts in the region note that many of the targets Israel has attacked have not hurt the Houthis, rather only the innocent civilians,” she told TNA.

“These attacks could strengthen the Houthis to mobilise more support from the people and recruit more easily at a time when many Yemenis were questioning their goals, especially given their lack of impact on Israel and stopping the war in Gaza.”

As Ansar Allah and Israel continue trading blows, there will, of course, remain an imbalance in the military strength of the two sides.

“In the end, the Houthis do not have the ability to seriously threaten Israel, which retains the upper hand in sheer firepower and defensive capabilities,” observed Dr Khoury. However, the former US diplomat did mention that even a single Houthi rocket reaching Ben Gurion Airport each month could be enough to significantly disrupt Israeli tourism and commercial activity.

Ultimately, the hostilities between the Houthis and Israel are set to continue as long as the Netanyahu government continues its genocidal war on Gaza.

As Dr Khoury put it, “Until Israel’s right-wing relinquishes power, we cannot expect a serious change of policy towards Palestinians, and therefore the region”.