A new study from Europe provides insight into how migrants lock and smuggling is working in Libya. Not only local rulers are involved, Russian interests are also involved.

Since the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Russia has had a problem: the future of its naval base at the Mediterranean port of Tartus and its Syrian air base Hmeim is in question. It is uncertain whether and, if so, to what extent the Russian military can hold both bases in Syria after Moscow’s partner Assad has been expelled.

This makes it all the more important in the Arab-dominated Greater Middle East and North Africa another country for Russia: Libya. Since December 2024, the month in which Assad was overthrown, security experts have been increasingly observing the movement of Syria to Libya. Already in the run-up, the New York think tank The Soufan Center reports in a report

from March this year, Russian ships had visited the eastern Libyan naval base Tobruk several times. This is under the control of the Libyan commander, who controls large parts in the east of the divided country: Chalifa Haftar.

“Immediately after Assad’s fall, numerous flights and cargo ships brought Russian material from bases in Syria to Libya,” also reports Tarek Megerisi, researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations and author of a recently published extensive study

to the Russian presence in Libya, in the DW conversation. “It was clear that Libya is the safe space in the Mediterranean region in Moscow’s eyes.” Moscow’s interests are not least noticed by mercenary militias such as the former Wagner Group, which today operates under the name “Africa Corps”.

Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Yunus-bek Yevkurov receives Libyan commander Khalifter at an airport near Moscow, 2023

Moscow’s interests in Libya

In Libya, torn apart by a long civil war, Moscow pursues several interests, says Megerisi. In principle, Russia is seeking a military presence on the Mediterranean. This has been mainly found in Syria. In addition, it is interested in the commercialisation of the local mineral resources, especially the energy resources. At the same time, under the pressure of the Western sanctions, it is trying to find buyers for their own exports. In addition, Libya serves as an important hub for the export of Russian weapons.

The Soufan Center also sees similarly. Artillery deliveries, for example, went to the so-Palestinian Libyan National Defense Army (LNA), write the security experts at the center in New York, or they could be “exported to anti-Western forces in neighbouring countries.” But there is also an influence on the migration to Europe ongoing via Libya – it serves Moscow as a means of exerting pressure on the EU.

A Russian ship passes the Bosphorus.

Son of the Ruler in Focus

In the Libya conflict, Russia has been supporting the renegade commander Haftar, the strong man in the Libyan East for years. This continues to be Moscow’s most important partner, says Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel regional programme of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali. “The Russians also have diplomatic relations in the western part of the country and the capital Tripoli. But the focus is clearly on Haftar.” According to Laessing in the DW talk, this is risky in that Haftar is now 81 years old and his rule was possibly fragile, even in view of political pressure from the USA.

The role of one of the sons of Haftar, Saddam Haftar, also seems all the more important to be a general. The man against whom Spain issued an arrest warrant in 2024 on suspicion of gun smuggling has established himself as a contact person for Russia in Libya in recent years, writes Megerisi in his studies. Haftar provides Russia with a network of Libyan military bases – and Moscow shows itself to be recognised: “Russia was using all this to (…) Helping Saddam Haftar build Libya’s role as a hotspot for smuggling weapons, drugs, fuel and people,” Megerisi continues.

For years there have been flights from Syria to eastern Libya, says Laessing of DW, completed mainly by a private Syrian airline. “They came to East Libya through migrants from Asia, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh. From there they were then brought to ships, which then set off for Italy.”

With the help of his private militia (Tariq bin-Ziad-Brigade), Saddam Haftar has built up a complex infrastructure for professional human smuggling, writes expert Megerisi in his study. These could then use transnational human trafficker and smuggling networks for a fee. The victims are the people who often take high risks and accept many privations in the hope of being able to lead a better life in Europe later. According to Megerisi, migrants are to be paid amounts of 9,000 US dollars.

Business with the suffering

When they arrived in Libya, the migrants would transfer their documents to another militia, which they then hold until the payment of the “fees” to be paid by the migrants. Until the departure of ships towards Europe, migrants would be detained for several days or weeks, usually under inhumane conditions.

“Then Saddam is receiving money again for his coast guard to let through boats: 100 dollars per migrant for ‘smaller boats’ (with about 300 to 550 people) or a flat fee of 80,000 dollars for larger boats,” Megerisi writes. However, other refugees would also be brought to the Libyan West: “This shows how Libyan armed groups overcome political borders in order to make a profit.”

Although the paths of migrants towards Libya are different, Megerisi writes. Africans usually would come by land, people from Asia are more likely to get around by plane. However, they usually travelled via various points of contact to eastern Libya, where they would be handed over to Haftar’s network.
A man is sitting in a van next to an uplumber of coffins with gold fittings, to the right of him there is apparently a gas or oxygen bottle

“Migration as a weapon”

This is where Moscow’s interests come into play with Europe. “Russia uses migration as a weapon,” Megerisi says. This had already been shown during the war in Syria, when Russian machines brought migrants from Damascus to Minsk, who then tried to come from there to Western Europe. This increased the pressure on the EU’s external borders. It is uncertain whether these flights were currently still in place: “Since Assad’s fall, however, the focus of migration has been on the Sahel. There, the Russian militias are helping to ensure that more people may be moving towards Europe from there. They also work hand in hand with Saddam Haftar.”

Europe can best counteract human smuggling by offering safe routes to migrants and effectively controlling people in arrival, Megerisi says. “This would be snatched by the people’s smugglers, and Europe took control of their own hands.”