Tigray Defence Forces have seized control of several major towns in the region, laying bare the fragility of a truce with the Ethiopian government.
In November 2022, the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan forces signed the Pretoria peace agreement – described by the African Union as a “new dawn” – to halt a devastating two-year conflict that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions of people.
But the northernmost region is on edge once again amid concerns of a new wave of full-blown conflict sparked by a worsening feud between the region’s military and political leadership.
There have been growing fear and anxiety in the restive region as residents withdraw money from banks and stockpile food, fearing that the region may be sliding back into conflict. There are also reports of long queues forming at petrol stations and fuel being sold on the black market for triple the official price, a familiar scenario during the war (November 2020 to November 2022).
Seizure of major towns
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) – with the approval of Debretsion Gebremichael, the chairman of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) – seized control of several major towns, including Adigrat, Tigray’s second-biggest town, defying the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray, headed by Getachew Reda.
Getachew requested an urgent intervention from the Ethiopian government, warning of a potential “second round of destruction” and referring to the TDF as “agents of a backward and criminal clique” who do not represent the people or the Interim Administration. The TPLF, in a statement, rejected “direct and indirect calls for third-party intervention” in the region, warning that it would pose a “serious threat” to the 2022 truce.
The seizure of towns comes after Getachew on Monday announced the suspension of three senior generals of the TDF, the region’s de facto army, accusing them of plotting to undermine the regional government. It followed a provocative statement by the generals on 23 January, appearing to support Debretsion, a shift from position of neutrality in the leadership dispute in Tigray.
The TDF’s senior leadership rejected the suspension, downplaying Getachew and the regional government’s authority to remove the generals.
In response to the suspensions, the TDF occupied government buildings in the seized towns, forcibly expelling officials appointed by Getachew’s regional government and installing TPLF cadres in their place.
Internal power struggle
Debretsion’s TPLF and the interim government led by Getachew, the TPLF’s long-serving chairman who was expelled last year, have been embroiled in a bitter feud, with both claiming they control the party.
Getachew was appointed president of the Interim Regional Administration in 2023 after Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed refused to certify the appointment of Debretsion, who was nominated by the TPLF following the end of the war in Tigray. The camps of the two men have since become bitter rivals.
Debretsion’s faction accuses the interim administration of gross misgovernance and plotting to destroy the party. They claim the interim government has failed to deliver on its core promise to liberate the areas still under the control of the Eritrean army and Amhara militia, as well as return the tens of thousands of people displaced by the war to their homes.
There also appears to be a split in the TDF, as some commanders support Debretsion’s TPLF, while others are loyal to Getachew’s government.
Ethiopia-Eritrea tension, possible impact
These developments in Tigray coincide with an escalation of tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The two countries fought together against the TPLF in the Tigray war before falling out. There are fears that a conflict between the two neighbours could draw Tigray in.
Over the past few days there have been credible reports that the Ethiopian army has been moving significant numbers of troops, as well as heavy weaponry, towards the Eritrean border in the province of Afar, which neighbours Tigray to the east.
In an Op-Ed published by The Africa Report, General Tsadkan G. Bayru, the Vice President of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray, warned Tigray cannot be the battleground for Ethiopia and Eritrea. “We have suffered enough”.