On 7 February 2025, the Trump administration sent a diplomatic note to the government of Kenya warning of possible sanctions against Rwandan and Congolese officials.

It was sent on the eve of a summit meeting aimed at negotiating a ceasefire in the conflict in the mineral-rich eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Washington’s note states that stability in the region will require the Rwandan military “to withdraw its forces and advanced weaponry” from the DRC. And it declared that “as we make these demands of both parties, we will consider sanctions against the non-cooperators, including military and government officials in both governments.”

Two regional organizations—the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community—are organizing the summit in Tanzania and it is scheduled to take place this Friday and Saturday (7-8 February 2025). Both President Tshisekedi of the DRC and President Kagame of Rwanda have confirmed that they will attend the meeting. In addition to arranging a ceasefire in eastern Congo, regional leaders hope to put an end to rampant and widespread human rights violations in the DRC and to increase the flow of food, medical supplies, and the other humanitarian assistance that is desperately needed by millions of people.

On 27 January 2025, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called President Tshisekedi of the DRC “to discuss the bilateral relationship and further enhancing out ties. In this introductory call, Secretary Rubio condemned the assault on Goma by the Rwandan-backed M23 and affirmed the Untied States’ respect for the sovereignty of the DRC.” And they agreed on the importance of “efforts to restart talks between the DRC and Rwanda as soon as possible.”

According to a State Department statement, “Secretary Rubio stressed the United States is deeply troubled by escalation of the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC, particularly the fall of Goma to the Rwandan-backed M23 armed group.”

On 30 January 2025, President Trump responded to a reporter’s question about the situation in the DRC, during a press conference on the air collision in Washington, DC. Trump answered, “you’re asking me a question about Rwanda, and it is a very serious problem, I agree, but I don’t think it’s appropriate right now to talk about it. But it is a very serious problem.”

Given President Trump’s preference for “transactional” relationships and his propensity for taking actions that are basically negotiating maneuvers, these threats and statements should probably be understood primarily as a bargaining tactic.

But on 24 January 2025, Michael Rubin, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a prominent foreign policy advisor, published an article entitled, “America Should Side with the Rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo.” According to Rubin, the M23 militia and the Kagame regime are people that America can do business with, and President Tshisekedi of the DRC heads “a corrupt Congolese government that cultivates China and whose dictator seeks an illicit third term.” Rubin argues that “Washington should be blunt: the city of Goma would be better under M23 control as capital of a federal region, not unlike Iraqi Kurdistan.” So, “rather than condemn the rebels,” Rubin declares that the United States “should work with them [M23] to build their capacity and help them govern freely and fairly. Congo deserves better than Tshisekedi. The rebels may be how they achieve a fairer, freer, and more prosperous future.”

So, what does Trump want to achieve in central Africa? He has made it clear that he wants to counter the “malign influence” of the government of China—which has made large investments in the DRC through the “Belt and Road” initiative—and to drive Chinese companies out of the mining industry in that country. He has made it clear that he wants to maintain and expand American access to the strategic raw materials that are vital for producing modern technological products, including mobile phones, computers, and other electronic devices, and use the Lobito Corridor railway to transport them from the DRC to the port of Lobito on Angola’s Atlantic Ocean coast. And he has made it clear that he wants to maintain, and expand, America’s military and economic alliance with Uganda and Rwanda.

Both Tshisekedi and Kagame appear to hope that Trump will take their respective side. But the only side that Trump takes is his own. He will try to manipulate the situation in whatever way he believes will serve his personal interests.