Latest Developments

• Egyptian Troops Participate in African Union Force: Egypt is sending troops to Somalia as a part of the new African Union (AU) mission authorized by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) at a meeting on December 27, 2024. Reportedly, Egypt already has several thousand troops stationed in Somalia, though it remains unclear whether these troops will be integrated into the deployment for the new mission. The African Union Stabilization and Support Mission (AUSSOM) replaces the previous AU mission in the country and will focus on fighting al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-affiliated terror group, and supporting the Somali government.
• Somalia-Ethiopia Tensions: Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia peaked in January 2024 when landlocked Ethiopia reportedly struck a deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland to lease a port and military base in exchange for recognition. While Ethiopia never confirmed the agreement, Somalia regarded the deal as a violation of its sovereignty. Somalia rejected Ethiopia’s offer to renew its participation in the new mission but is now reportedly considering reversing that decision. In December, Turkey mediated an agreement that ostensibly grants Ethiopia “reliable, safe and sustainable” sea access under Somali sovereignty.
• Somalia-Egypt Relations: Amid Ethiopia’s ongoing tensions with Somalia, Egypt has sought to strengthen its ties with Somalia to solidify its presence in the Horn of Africa following tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which diverts water from the Nile River. Speaking at the December 27, 2024, UNSC meeting, Tesfaye Yilma, Ethiopia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, issued a veiled warning against Egyptian involvement, saying, “Extra-regional actors that have no constructive role in the region, and in fighting terrorism in Somalia, should be advised to abandon their reckless pursuit.”

FDD Expert Response

“Washington’s priorities should focus on managing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia and utilize the troop contributions of both nations to help the African Union Mission in Somalia prevent al-Shabaab from expanding its areas of control. Addis Abba and Cairo’s experiences in countering terrorism are needed equally.” — Haisam Hassanein, FDD Adjunct Fellow

“Egypt’s decision to join the new African Union mission in Somalia is in line with its strategic objectives in the Horn of Africa. By deepening its commitment to Somalia through military presence, Cairo aims to counterbalance and exert pressure on Ethiopia. Additionally, Cairo appears to be testing the agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia that Turkey mediated last month. The lingering question is whether this approach risks overstretching Egypt’s resources and regional standing.” — Mariam Wahba, FDD Research Analyst