December 11th, 2024, was another historic day for the Horn of Africa States region. It was the day the Ankara Declaration was announced by the Turkish Government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with respect to an agreement between the Federal Republic of Somalia and the Federal Republic of Ethiopia, wherein the two countries turned away from the brink of war in the region, under the facilitation of Türkiye.

The Somali side was represented by President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, while the Ethiopian side was represented by Prime Minister Abiye Ahmed Ali, the top leaders of the two countries. On face value the document announced by the Türkiye Government reflects a way forward for both countries to live in peace together, but many pundits on both sides believe that their side have erred in signing to the agreement.

On the Somali side, many see that Ethiopia was an aggressor which has moved on to grab part of its territorial lands and sea while retaining a large part of Somali territory, Western Somalia, some 500, 000 square kilometers under the name of Somali State of Ethiopia in general and in the Oromia State of Ethiopia. To them it is like a person coming to claim the sleeve of the shirt one is wearing or a room in one’s own house. There was no need for such an agreement and Türkiye, as a strategic partner of Somalia, should simply have told Ethiopia to abide by international law.

The opposition to Prime Minister Abiye Ahmed of Ethiopia are all crywolfing that he has abandoned the dream of Ethiopia to have its own access to a sea, which was within reach through the illegal MoU with a region of Somalia.

It would appear, however, that both leaders of Somalia and Ethiopia were put under tremendous pressure by Türkiye’s President Erdogan to reach an accord that would satisfy both. It was, in the main, it appears, an accord to satisfy the needs of Türkiye, Somalia as a strategic partner and Ethiopia as a commercial partner.

Prime Minister Abiye Ahmed Ali, in his previous discourses, always mentioned that he would respect Somalia’s sovereignty, but never Somalia’s territorial integrity and unity, which this declaration announces that he has agreed to the territorial integrity of Somalia, while being assured of a commercial access to Somalia’s seas.

In essence, Somalia seems to have abandoned its previous rejection of the border between south Somalia and Ethiopia which is so far provisional, or it looks as such by agreeing to the territorial integrity of Ethiopia. This needs to be revisited in the eyes of Somalis, while perhaps, this does not even blink on the Ethiopian side. They take the current border for granted and ignore there is a dispute in this regard.

Many Somalis argue that Prime Minister Ahmed Ali is not sincere while President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud is desperate with a view to the shifting Somali political landscape which does not favor him. Both leaders had to succumb to the pressures of Türkiye, though, to sign on to the Ankara Declaration.

A great matter that will come to the forefront in the future will be the negotiations that are planned to start in February 2025 and to be completed within a short period of time, perhaps within months. This seems to be too ambitious as both sides will need more time to prepare themselves, at least, to assemble negotiating teams that have expertise in commercial accessibility of landlocked countries and corridor management, which Somalia does not apparently have at present.

The negotiations should not be designed for the current two leaders’ personal agendas. The contracts to be signed and negotiated should be designed to create long-term workable relationships between the two countries and peoples, which have had rough relations involving wars and skirmishes between the two countries over the years. The negotiations should be designed to be completed over a number of years as all agreements put forth in short periods often cause more problems for the issues they were designed originally to solve.

The Ankara Declaration involves commercial access to the sea for Ethiopia through the Somali coastline. This should be a good arrangement for both countries after the negotiation processes are completed. The negotiations will have to involve not only the management of the corridor(s) but also the financing of the construction phase of the necessary ports, roads and rail, if necessary and other infrastructures.

Ethiopia despite being a landlocked country has been working on establishing a naval force , which makes the Ankara Declaration suspicious as far as Somalis are concerned. They do not want to have a foreign naval force which they do not approve of in their waters and Ethiopia is not yet a country, which Somalia can truly trust. It will take years to earn such trust, and Ethiopia should abandon such naval force. Somalia can offer to purchase the fleet it acquired through the years, and this will be good for Ethiopia instead of wasting them docked in international ports and paying unnecessary demurrage fees.

The security, safety and reliability of Somalia’s ports, roads and rail services within the Somali sovereign territory should be the responsibility of Somalia while the safety, security and reliability of the roads and rail service within the territory of Ethiopia should be the responsibility of Ethiopia. The contracts that are to be signed between the two parties should be drafted in that context and no less.

The overall context of the Ankara Declaration represents a welcome relief from the difficult environment that was developing in the region, which could have put it back into years of chaos and other disasters, both known and unknown and unexpected. It is also a way forward for the region’s possible economic integration and one must applaud it.

It is an opener for a dialogue and engagement between the two neighboring countries, which share a large population, some 164 million, between the two for a prosperous and stable future. The two in peace can also attract the other two countries of the region to a new arrangement, that assures the population of the region a better life ahead.