The Horn of Africa States region has been a significant geopolitical battleground on the world stage since the opening of the Suez Canal in the second half of the nineteenth century. The region’s history, however, indicates that it was always a major economic player connecting Asia to Africa and Europe from Pharaonic times. It still is, as it overlooks one of the major shipping lanes of the world.

That it is also the source of the Blue Nile which provides most fresh water to Northeast Africa (Sudan and Egypt) adds to its major geostrategic importance. The closeness to Yemen and hence the Houthi/Iranian/Israeli troubles on the other side of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, further adds to its significance, which is also complicated by the Gulf States dynamics and activities in the region.

Its own historical ethnic and religious idiosyncrasies and hence conflicts do not help either. A lot of rhetoric in this regard and “nationalism” playing foul and fooling tunes only add to the miseries of the populations of the region.

It is, therefore, a region which attracts all major powers. In the recent past, it was the communist ex-Soviet Union against the capitalist world. Today it is the West against China and the BRICS crowd. The Iranian/Israeli war and the Palestinian issue also impact the region indirectly because of its location.

The Horn of Africa States region is a resource rich region (Read my Article: The Horn Of Africa States: A Resource Rich Region – Op-ed and published in Eurasiareview.com on November 4th, 2024). It has a large youthful population which could both be a labor source with many years of working life ahead of them and a market. It also presents itself as an efficiency manufacturing base because of a cheaper labor cost and it enjoys a large material resource base, involving agriculture, marine and sub-soil.

How would the new administration of President Trump affect the region? This is an important question that must have come to the minds of many Horn Africans. We shall attempt in this short article to address our thoughts in this respect.

President Trump is a businessman, and his politics follow his acumen in the art of dealing and making business transactions and investments. He will no doubt encourage American businessmen and corporations to be provided with easier access to markets, involving perhaps removal of regulatory barriers. He will no doubt pursue businesses that show investment returns quicker.

The region should, therefore, be prepared to attract those American corporations which may help in the extraction of the sub-soil wealth of the region including gold, silver and uranium and/or lithium and copper and cobalt of which the region owns substantial deposits and reserves. American firms could be enticed to invest in the region’s food production for export to regions like the Gulf States, where they could make good returns, but also benefitting the region through the employment of the large youthful population of the region.

It would definitely be much better for the region to work with investing corporations and firms instead of NGOs which have been a burden and a plaque on the region or for that matter wait for government aid, which does not add one iota to the development process of any country. This will, of course, require pro-business administrations in the region itself, which emphasize on development instead of personal political preservations. It is not only the governments but also the regional corporations which should benefit from the pro-business administration.

We know that President Trump has supported African exports to the United States through the AGOA project or the African Growth and Opportunity Act. Bilateral deals in this respect would be more beneficial for the Horn African exporters than going through multilateral agreements, including transactions through the IMF and the World Bank Group.

A growing economic pie in the region would require investments in infrastructure, education, health, and technologies. A sustained resource exploitation and managed well can create the necessary income and hence provide the finances required for developing these projects.

Life is a chain where every action is connected to another. This will need the Horn African leadership to manage the resources of the region better and cooperate with those who are interested in investing in the region. Certainly, Trump in his competition with the Chinese will become a better business partner for the region, should the region be willing.

On the security front, the Trump administration is isolationist but will continue to defend the interests of the United States anywhere. There should be no doubt about that. While the administration will continue the pressures on terrorism, the United States will be more concerned about the presence of the Chinese in the region. Note the only foreign naval base of China is in Djibouti. With China being Africa’s largest trade Partner at present, the Trump administration may put some countries in the region into diplomatic difficulties, because of their large Chinese footprints. This is, however, to be seen.

The Horn of Africa States region, perhaps, needs to take stock of its situation and redefine its path. This will require the countries of the region to revisit their relations and establish cordial and cooperative platforms avoiding the recent interferences in each other’s internal affairs, such as the Ethio-Somali interstate conflict. This issue bedeviled some of those partners who may have wished the conflict to disappear and attracted other actors to the region. Ethiopia should make the first move to make peace as it did instigate the latest problem between Somalia and Ethiopia.

A united Horn African dynamic would have helped the region better in negotiating with others and especially with the Trump Administration which prefers straight deals instead of clumsy so-called diplomatic maneuvers which only cause more problems as they are generally built on cheating and lies.

This would enable the region to procure fair trade deals on good terms. This would help in reviving the manufacturing businesses of the region such as the clothing, the leather, and the gold industries. The region’s ownership of large reserves of gems and precious stones would have helped it build a successful jewellery industries both for local consumption and for exports.

It may also build on a thriving tourism industry. Perhaps a Trump Tower in one of the beautiful beaches of the region would help, where a significant mobile tourist population from Europe and the Americas can descend on those currently empty beaches and enjoy the beautiful sun and sand of the region and this will be copied by other tourism companies worldwide.

America’s oil corporations have been in the region for nearly a century, and they certainly own concessions signed with previous governments of the region, which are currently under force majeure clauses. These could be re-invigorated, which would add to the wealth of these corporations and the region. The Trump Administration would love to see deals in this respect, noting that the Horn of Africa is the last oil and gas frontier in the world. This would put his administration as the American Administration which drilled first oil and gas in the region.

Now that President Trump is back, we shall see how the region will dance with the shift in American politics. It is certain that he will work for American interests, but how this will affect the region will have to be seen. We see opportunities for both the United States and the Horn of Africa region, and we hope they will work together for mutual benefits.