While JNIM and other jihadi groups have long been operating in the Sahel, the recent attacks indicate a more troubling reality for the Central Sahel and how its local security architecture is struggling to keep pace with the extremists’ threats.

A series of coordinated attacks rocked the Sahel region in the first week of November, as Al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) targeted local defense forces, military posts, and communities in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali.

While JNIM and other jihadi groups have long been operating in the Sahel, the recent attacks indicate a more troubling reality for the Central Sahel and how its local security architecture is struggling to keep pace with the jihadi threats.

On Nov. 2, the terrorists fired 120 mm mortars at security checkpoints in the Boni-Douentza area of Mali, forcing Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) personnel to abandon their posts, a sign showing how difficult it has become to retain territory in areas where militants have the upper hand.

Though no casualties were reported, JNIM claimed they captured additional weapons and ammunition to bolster their firepower. Also, the use of mortars signifies a shift toward more organised and potentially lethal tactics in Mali, where JNIM has typically relied on ambushes and smaller-scale confrontations. It further indicates the group’s diversifying tactics, leveraging heavier weapons to reinforce its position.

On the following day, suspected JNIM militants clashed with the Dan Na Ambassagou ethnic militia in the Bandiagara region, killing 14 and burning the village of Tougoumé. It caused a massive displacement of the local residents.

Through targeting Dan Na Amassagou, a group created to protect Dogon communities from extremist attacks, JNIM seeks to deepen mistrust and fuel divisions as the attacks show their increasing capability to execute complex operations that destabilize local security forces without direct confrontation.

Katiba Macina, led by the preacher Amadou Kouffa, has focused its activities on central Mali, exploiting local conflicts to strengthen its influence. For the displaced villagers of Tougoumé, the consequences are profound. With no guarantee of security and their homes destroyed, they join the ranks of the displaced – a growing population in the Sahel who find themselves at the mercy of armed groups.

While Mali’s government has concentrated efforts to secure central and northern regions, the latest attacks reveal how challenging it is for FAMa to keep a sustained presence in these areas.

Weakening defense in Burkina Faso

In Burkina Faso, JNIM fighters killed eight members of the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP), a local volunteer security outfit, and seized ammunition in the village of Kari on Nov. 3. This loss reflects the vulnerabilities of the VDP, a group mostly made up of civilians with minimal military training and resources.

Formed as a stopgap to address critical gaps in military manpower, the VDP has become a frequent target for insurgent groups who understand that these volunteers are often less equipped and supported than national soldiers. The reliance on VDP forces has increased under the leadership of Burkina Faso’s ruling military junta, who, in the face of JNIM’s unrelenting insurgency, are under pressure to stem the spread of violence across vast and difficult-to-monitor rural areas.

However, this recent attack demonstrates the difficulties these militias, often made up of minimally trained civilians, face in an intense attack. It has also exposed the VDP’s limited capacity to counter sophisticated militant forces.

On the same day, a similar assault in Niger’s Tillaberi region left one security officer dead and the terror group continue to release propaganda messages on a daily basis. They have as well doubled their efforts to dismantle local defense structures, exploit community fractures, and seize arms to maintain pressure on vulnerable territories.

A fragile defense along Niger border

JNIM militants also launched an attack on a security post near Tillaberi, a Niger Republic border community, killing one officer. This sparsely populated region has become a staging ground for jihadi activity due to its porous borders since 2020, which allow armed groups to cross from one country to another with minimal resistance.

By targeting security posts in border areas, JNIM undercuts Niger’s ability to maintain control over key territories, further stretching already scarce resources.

The attack further reveals how JNIM aims to sustain a low-level, but constant, pressure on Niger’s security forces, making it difficult for the government to assert authority in an area critical to regional stability.

Rising humanitarian costs

JNIM’s coordinated attacks across Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali reveal a systematic approach aimed at eroding the capability of state forces, destabilising local defense structures, and sowing fear in communities.

The cross-border nature of these incidents points to JNIM’s adaptability and capacity to operate across the Sahel, where state lines are blurred in the face of militant operations.

The human toll of these operations is undeniable. Each attack leaves a trail of destruction, loss, and displacement. As more villages face the threat of militant incursions, the number of internally displaced people continues to rise.

According to the United Nations, more than 4.2 million people have been displaced in the Sahel and, as of 2022, more than 10 million children are in dire need of humanitarian assistance.

The humanitarian impact extends beyond the immediate violence; communities forced to flee find themselves without access to basic services, while others live in fear of repeat attacks. For residents of regions like Tougoumé, the hope of returning home remains distant, and each new attack by JNIM only compounds the challenges faced by those on the margins of state protection.