The parties to the South Sudan high-level mediation in Nairobi, often referred to as the hold-out groups, are expected to sign the final agreement in November following the completion of nine protocols touching on key agenda items.
The revelations from the mediation team signal a revival of the final stages of the talks, which had appeared suspended for the past two months after the government delegation went to Juba for consultations.
In an interview with The EastAfrican, the chief mediator, Lt-Gen (Rtd) Lazarus Sumbeiywo, said that negotiations on all but one of the protocols had been completed, indicating that the one on Responsibility Sharing (power sharing) remained unfinished. The mediator said the remaining part should be completed in the next week.
“There should be no cause for alarm because, in many mediations, delegates are allowed to go back to consult with their members.
“The Transitional Government of National Unity is made up of five parties that are represented in Tumaini, so it is natural for them to brief their members on what they have achieved,” said Lt-Gen Sumbeiywo.
Sumbeiywo, who had helped mediate South Sudan’s journey to secession from Sudan, is leading the talks between the coalition government under President Salva Kiir and groups that had initially refused to sign the 2018 peace agreement that brought in place the transitional government. The talks are formally known as the Tumaini Initiative.
Members of the South Sudan Opposition Movements Alliance (Ssoma) involved in the talks had expressed concern that the government delegation was taking too long in Juba, amid reports that some elements in the government and security sector were opposed to the Tumaini and were trying to scuttle it.
Some sources told The EastAfrican that the coalition government had been wrangling over whether to allow the holdout groups in the coalition government, with some senior government officials fearing it could dilute their relevance.
The EastAfrican had also learnt that some senior security officials were particularly opposed to the deal.
Last week, President Kiir sacked the head of the National Security Services (NSS), Gen Akol Koor Kuc, and appointed him as a state governor. It was unclear whether Kuc was among those opposed but Kiir did not give reasons for his dismissal.
Dr Riek Machar, a coalition government member and leader of the SPLM-IO, had publicly opposed the Tumaini because some of the protocols would undermine the principles of the 2018 peace agreement, formally known as the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), brokered and mediated by the regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad).
The nine protocols cover confidence-building measures; communal violence and land issues; justice sector reforms, transitional justice and accountability; security sector reforms; the permanent constitutional process; economic recovery; humanitarian access and support; and responsibility sharing.
Ssoma, on the other hand, believes that the nine protocols are the only way to save the country from perpetual conflict and accuses the transitional government of abandoning them in Nairobi.
Patrick Godi, the youth representative at Tumaini Initiative, says that while there are issues around the protocols on economic recovery, judicial and security sector reforms, they are being discussed in Juba and will be resolved soon.
Pagan Amum, the leader of the Real SPLM, another group in the talks, maintained that the talks have not collapsed.
“The government has not yet returned to the table. We are patiently waiting for them,” he said.
According to a briefing released by the Durban-based African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (Accord) on September 30, the Tumaini Initiative, while presenting a valuable opportunity for consensus-building and political reconciliation, may compromise its legitimacy if it is seen as a standalone mechanism, disconnected from the broader peace process.
“Furthermore, if integrated into the extended R-ARCSS and the Roadmap, it risks being perceived as yet another iteration of the status quo, which has repeatedly failed to address the underlying causes of South Sudan’s conflict,” said the Accord briefing.
Mogga Loyo, a South Sudanese political analyst, said that the people are hoping that the Tumaini Initiative will not only focus on interest groups but engage the citizens in every step of the negotiations.
South Sudan’s transitional government postponed elections scheduled for December this year and extended its mandate for another 24 months. While some officials agreed that the country had not prepared for polls, donors were particularly critical of the extension, warning that they could pull the plug on funding.