In 2011, South Sudan split as a new nation from Sudan as a result of discrimination, inequalities and ethnic conflicts for many years. After Independence it emerged as a new nation, however it brought these legacies into the new nation. South Sudanese are the greatest victims of war and hunger in the world. After a long war with Sudan, this new nation has been in the internal war between two ethnic groups. With many ups and downs of war and peace, general elections scheduled to be held in South Sudan on 22 December 2024, the first since independence in 2011.
However, as there were a lot of suspicions, whether the election would be held on the announced date as previously there have been several election date announcements and postponements as well. The election dates again have been postponed by two years, which has not come as a great surprise. President Salva Kiir’s office says essential tasks like writing a new constitution have to happen before an election. Officials have also cited logistical and security challenges, which could not be overcome by the end of the year.
After Independence, general elections were scheduled to be held by 9 July 2015, however in light of an alleged coup d’état attempt, the South Sudan parliament voted in April 2015 to amend the country’s transitional constitution 2011 to extend the presidential and parliamentary term until 9 July 2018. It was postponed again to 2021 in July 2018. Thereafter again, following the peace agreement that ended the civil war, a transitional period of three years was agreed on, which would be followed by elections in 2023. In addition, in 2022, the transitional government and opposition leaders agreed to move it too late 2024. However, certain outstanding issues in the revitalized peace agreement 2018 have not been implemented but their fate needs to be addressed by the signatory parties. These include making a permanent constitution and establishing a unifying military command, whose implementation requires only a genuine political will.
General Salva Kirr has been in the position of president from the very beginning. He has been the President of South Sudan since its independence on 9 July 2011. Prior to independence, he was the President of the Government of Southern Sudan, as well as First Vice President of Sudan, from 2005 to 2011. He was named Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) in 2005, following the death of John Garang.
In December 2013, a political power struggle broke out between President Kiir and his former deputy Riek Machar. After the outbreak of war, Machar left the government and led the war from the opposition side of forces. This was ethnic war between the Dinka, the largest ethnic group and the Nuer, the second largest tribe in South Sudan, which were commanded by President Kirr and Vice President Riek Machar.
Later, a peace agreement was signed in Ethiopia under threat of United Nations sanctions for both sides in August 2015. Machar returned to Juba in 2016 and was appointed vice president. Following a second breakout of violence in Juba, Machar was replaced as vice-president and he fled the country as the conflict erupted again. Up to 300,000 people are estimated to have been killed in the war and about 3 million people have been displaced in a country of 12 million, with about 2 million internally displaced and about 1 million having fled to neighboring countries, especially Kenya, Sudan, and Uganda.
The President of South Sudan is elected via the two-round system. If no candidate obtains over half of valid votes cast, another round must be held within 60 days between the two candidates that obtained the most votes. The 332 members of the National Legislative Assembly shall be comprised of – 158 elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting, 110 elected via closed-list proportional representation using the divisor method from women-only lists at a national level47 elected via closed-list proportional representation using the divisor method at a national level and 17 appointed by the elected President. To be eligible for proportional representation seats, a list must obtain at least 4% of valid votes.
South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir, with agreements with other parties, fixed the number of cabinet ministers, sharing power with ex-rebels in a key step in the peace process. Kiir nominated 20 ministers, while SPLM-IO’s Riek Machar nominated nine ministers. The South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) nominated three ministers, Former Detainees nominated two ministers and other opposition political parties nominated one minister. The new Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) is part of a peace agreement signed in September 2018 between President Kiir and several opposition leaders including Riek Machar, the new First Vice President. General Salva Kirr has been the President of South Sudan since its independence on 9 July 2011. Prior to independence, he was the President of the Government of Southern Sudan, as well as First Vice President of Sudan, from 2005 to 2011.
South Sudan, one of the poorest countries in Africa, has the third-largest oil reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa. Oil revenues constitute more than 98% of the government of South Sudan’s budget. The war in Sudan also threatens the oilfields, pipelines and other facilities based there that South Sudan uses and pays for. This could severely reduce South Sudan’s oil revenue. The country sends its crude oil to international markets through its northern neighbor’s Port Sudan on the Red Sea via a 1 600 km pipeline.
As a result of lingering political tension and violence, the deep-rooted ethnic-political divisions, allegiances and deadly power struggles among political elites are the major challenges facing the prospect of a fair and credible election in South Sudan. It should be addressed otherwise it may lead to fraud, intimidation, violence, and ultimately the protest of the results. The lack of a strong institutional framework for organizing and conducting elections can further exacerbate these challenges. Weak governance structures and rampant corruption would undermine the credibility of any process and are also considered cause to postpone election in South Sudan.
Moreover, the establishment of an independent electoral commission tasked with overseeing the entire electoral process is a positive move. Yet, it needs to be trained and equipped with the necessary skills to fulfill its roles of ensuring impartiality and accountability.
However, complete voter registration and identification pose a significant hurdle to ensuring a fair election in South Sudan. With a large portion of the population living in rural and remote areas, many have limited access to identification documents, there is a risk of disenfranchising many eligible voters. Many South Sudanese are still living in refugee camps in the neighboring countries with no prospects of them being brought back before the election or assisted in any way and allowed to participate in the elections. In the forthcoming general election of South Sudan, based on the situations and circumstances developed since its independence, it would still be very difficult to guarantee an election, until it is accomplished in stipulated time , let’s again wait for another two years’ elections to be held in South Sudan. Whether the government would complete all these remaining tasks within two years, has again been a big question mark?