President Touadera might truly believe that he’s pragmatically diversifying from his country’s dependence on Russia via Wagner, but those who he invited into it as part of this plan are arguably playing a double game against him as part of their US Government patron’s New Cold War agenda.

The Central African Republic (CAR) is the centerpiece of Russia’s “Democratic Security” policy towards the continent, which refers to its assistance in helping partners counteract Hybrid War threats to their national models of democracy that are usually externally exacerbated and concern identity conflicts. Russia’s successes there paved the way for exporting a bespoke version of this policy to the Sahel and perhaps eventually to other parts of Africa as well. Here are three background briefings on this:

• 4 August 2022: “Russia’s Security Assistance To The Central African Republic Is Crucial To Its Stability”
• 15 February 2023: “Russia’s Newfound Appeal To African Countries Is Actually Quite Easy To Explain”
• 8 May 2023: “American Officials Told Politico Their Plan For Waging Hybrid War Against Wagner In Africa”

The abovementioned background is why the Associated Press’ (AP) report about the CAR’s deal with the US PMC “Bancroft Global Development” was so surprising even though the CAR’s presidential spokesman hinted at this last December. He said that “The United States is also offering to the Central African Republic to train its soldiers, both on Central African soil and on American soil” as part of his country’s “reconstruction of the national army”, which also includes Russian assistance among others’.

The US and Russia are fighting the fiercest proxy war of the New Cold War thus far in Ukraine, however, so it already raised eyebrows that the CAR would even consider inviting any armed Americans onto its soil amidst the large-scale presence of Wagner there. The AP’s report confirms that Bancroft reached an agreement with the CAR to deploy fewer than 30 of its PMCs in the country to help with “intelligence systems, interagency cooperation and law enforcement.”

While a miniscule number, they’re operating in the sensitive sphere of “intelligence systems”, which could enable them to learn more about Wagner’s opaque activities in the CAR before passing along or selling this insight to the US, France, or whoever else. It’s also concerning that the AP claimed that officials from the CAR sent a letter to Bancroft on the same day of Prigozhin’s mutiny, which suggested that they were panicking about Wagner’s future in the country and didn’t place enough trust in Russia.

According to Bancroft’s founder in his first interview with the media since his company started operating there, “(President) Touadera felt his Russian partners were underperforming and distracted, focused too much on other lines of effort ranging from breweries to cultural centers, rather than confronting the rebels.” He added that “Touadera thought diversifying partners would prompt Russia to get in line and give the Americans what they wanted” after the latter pressured him to diversify from Wagner.

AP reported that some locals have protested against the US, Bancroft, and Western meddling in the country in general even though it’s now known that this American PMC is operating there with the government’s permission. These developments suggest a combination of spontaneity, speculative Russian organization to a degree, and the potential involvement of dissident officials who disagree with Toudaera’s decision, the latter of whom might be behind the crackdown on suspicious Westerners.

As to why he agreed to let Bancroft into his country, a PMC expert was quoted by the AP as saying that “Central African Republic officials approached Bancroft, which shows that these governments haven’t become Russian puppets”, thus suggesting that it was mostly for optics’ sake. This is a reasonable explanation and counteracts concerns that Touadera is playing a double game against Russia. Nevertheless, it doesn’t account for why he’d let Bancroft work with “intelligence systems”.

That PMC also received more than $43 million from the US Government (USG) between 2018-2020 according to audits required as part of tax forms per AP’s report so there’s no doubt that it’s in cahoots with DC. Toudera might have thought that letting a miniscule number of their fighters operate in the country could relieve some pressure upon it from the US, but he might also be thinking in the back of his mind that they could replace Wagner (whether in whole or in part) if the latter fails to defeat the rebels.

About that, the CAR’s long-running civil war is mostly over ethno-religious conflicts that boil down to who’ll hold power and how they’ll redistribute resources in that event, with it being thought that some of the anti-government groups (a few of whom are designated as terrorists) are backed by France. Wagner saved the CAR from collapse upon its intervention there, which is why it’s so loved in the capital, but it’s equally resented among those outside of it who failed to seize power as a result.

Average CAR citizens just want peace and stability like citizens anywhere in the world, but swathes of the country are still outside of the state’s control, which creates an opening for allegedly French-backed groups to operate in organizing another offensive sometime down the line. It’s here where Bancroft can assist the West by passing along whatever it learns about Wagner through its involvement in the CAR’s “intelligence systems”, which could potentially increase the odds of anti-government forces’ success.

Considering this, while Toudera might truly believe that he’s pragmatically diversifying from his country’s security dependence on Russia via Wagner, those who he agreed to let into the country to this end are arguably playing a double game against him in advance of their USG patron’s interests. If Wagner can’t effectively hold back these French-backed group’s future offensives, then he might then be pressured by the US into replacing more of Wagner with Bancroft, who might then plot a regime change against him.

The US never forgives foreign leaders for allying with its rivals, and Toudera likely won’t be the first exception. America’s grand strategic goal is to expel Russian influence from the CAR through a combination of Bancroft and French-backed groups working hand-in-hand to advance this agenda. Toudera is inadvertently facilitating this by contracting that USG-financed PMC instead of more pragmatically contracting non-Western ones whose patrons aren’t in a proxy war with Russia.

He and all leaders have the right to diversify from country’s dependence on any single partner, but it’s unwise to bring in armed representatives of that aforesaid partner’s rivals, let alone when those two are actively fighting one another elsewhere. This obviously risks turning their country into another proxy war battleground instead of keeping it out of the fray like he naively assumed. Hopefully his seemingly “well-intentioned” mistake will remain manageable, but it should never have been made in the first place.