Somalia is trying to become to Ethiopia what Ukraine is to Russia.

Sputnik reported that Ethiopian Ministry Affairs spokesman Nebiya Tedla declared on Sunday that “There is no power that can stop Ethiopia from taking necessary action without asking permission from anyone. Ethiopia and its regional governments will continue working on this, in coordination with all neighboring countries. There is no way Ethiopia will allow any force that opposes its interest to emerge in Somalia. Ethiopia will continue taking calculated actions to maintain its national interest.”

The background is that Somalia earlier hinted that it’ll demand the departure of Ethiopia’s anti-terrorist troops by year’s end as the AU-led mission there winds down and then possibly replace them with their Egyptian rival’s forces. Ethiopian-Somalian ties deteriorated after Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland for commercial-military port access in exchange for recognizing its independence and giving it stakes in at least one national company. Here are some background briefings:

• 3 January: “The Somalian Authorities & Al-Shabaab Are On The Same Side Against Ethiopia’s Somaliland Port Deal”
• 8 January: “The Somali Leader Is Looking For Allies As He Plots Hybrid War Against Ethiopia & Somaliland”
• 15 January: “Korybko To The Epoch Times: The Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU Is Legitimate & Pragmatic”
• 22 January: “Egypt Is Saber-Rattling Against Ethiopia To Distract From Its Betrayal Of The Palestinians”
• 8 February: “The Ethiopian Premier Made Three Solid Points About His Country’s Intentions Towards Somalia”
• 5 June: “Somalia’s Intent To Expel Ethiopia’s Anti-Terrorist Forces Exposes Its Dirty Agenda”
• 12 June: “Regional Divisions Are Widening In Somalia Over Mogadishu Wanting To Kick Out Ethiopian Troops”

Somalia’s signals prompted alarm in its Southwest State and Jubaland, which are some of the places where Al-Shabaab has traditionally been most active. They don’t want Ethiopia’s anti-terrorist troops to depart because they rightly fear that the terrorists will take advantage of it just like the Taliban took advantage of the US-led Western coalition’s planned withdrawal from Afghanistan. Having learned from America’s disastrous experience, Ethiopia is reluctant to leave Somalia even if Mogadishu demands it.

Whereas the US is located literally half the world away from Afghanistan, Ethiopia is right next door to Somalia, from where Al-Shabaab terrorists could invade its neighboring Somali Region in the worst-case scenario. Sometimes the best defense is a good offensive, as the saying goes, so it’s with this in mind that Ethiopia might retain its military presence in Somalia with the support of those two previously mentioned regional governments that share its anti-terrorist concerns.

Somalia has the right to ask those who it invited into the country to leave and replace them with whoever it wants, but Ethiopia also has the right not to recklessly endanger its citizens by going along with such a request that would be made with malicious intentions. Mogadishu might cynically want Al-Shabaab to rise again in those parts of Somalia from where Ethiopia could be asked to withdraw so that these hybrid religious radicals/ethno-nationalists can serve as its Hybrid War proxies against Addis.

Inviting Egyptian forces in their wake would deliberately provoke Ethiopia considering those two’s tensions over the latter’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Cairo falsely fearmongered for years would deprive its downstream population of water and thus amount to destroying the country. That never ended up happening upon the dam’s final filling last September, yet tensions remain because that was just a pretext all along for Egypt to contain Ethiopia, whose rise as a multipolar power it fears.

While it remains to be seen what Ethiopia ultimately does, its leadership might calculate that it’s in their national interests to remain in Somalia despite Mogadishu’s expected departure demand in order to proactively defend against terrorist threats and prevent being more fully encircled by Egypt. Somalia is trying to become to Ethiopia what Ukraine is to Russia as revenge for its MoU with Somaliland, which could plunge the Horn of Africa region into a similar state of warfare as Eastern Europe is experiencing.