Latest Developments

Egypt is reportedly sending 10,000 troops to Somalia, in a move that signals a potential major escalation in the Horn of Africa. On August 29, two Egyptian military planes carrying weapons and ammunition landed at Mogadishu airport as a part of Egypt’s planned deployment to a new peacekeeping mission — itself the consequence of a security pact signed in August 2024 between the two countries.

Tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia are at an unprecedented high over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River. Since construction began in 2011, Egypt has viewed the dam as a direct threat to its water supply. Despite multiple rounds of negotiations, including a 2019 U.S.-brokered effort, the parties have failed to reach a lasting agreement.

Earlier this year, Ethiopia signed a preliminary agreement with the breakaway republic of Somaliland to lease land in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence from Somalia. This move has strained relations between Ethiopia and the Somali government in Mogadishu, which called the deal a violation of its sovereignty. As a result, Egypt and Somalia have drawn closer, positioning Egypt as a strategic ally in Somalia’s confrontation with Ethiopia.

Expert Analysis

“Egypt’s military presence in Somalia aims to achieve four objectives: First, to assist the Somali army and raise its combat efficiency to deal with the terrorist operations of the Islamist Al-Shabaab terrorist organization. Second, to support the unity of the Somali territories by raising the capability of its armed forces. Third, to enhance Mogadishu’s participation in securing the Bab al-Mandab Strait. And fourth, to taunt Ethiopia and make its leaders uncomfortable.” — Haisam Hassanein, FDD Adjunct Fellow

“There is more to Egypt’s meddling in Somalia than meets the eye. This is a calculated move in the broader geo-political game, reflecting Cairo’s frustration with the diplomatic stalemate over Ethiopia’s dam project. By signaling its willingness to escalate, Egypt hopes to reign in the political and security threats posed by Ethiopia.” — Mariam Wahba, FDD Research Analyst

Ethiopian Dam Threatens Egypt’s Water Security

Since the start of GERD construction in 2011, Cairo has asserted that the project is a direct threat to its water security. Addis Ababa maintains that the dam is a development project and does not threaten Egypt.

Egypt’s population of over 110 million relies heavily on the Nile’s fresh water. The river is also the backbone of Egyptian agriculture — a major component of the Egyptian economy, representing 11.3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.

For Ethiopia, the $4.5 billion project is a symbol of its regional ambitions. The mile-long dam is expected to double electricity production in the country of more than 120 million people.

Years of stop-start talks have yielded no results, including the most recent attempt undertaken in December 2023.