On 24 February 2022, when Russia began its airstrike in the Donbas region of Ukraine, no one imagined it to become a full-blown war, nor that it would continue for so long. Yet, more than two years later, the metastasising war goes on. Despite the distance, the repercussions of the war have been deeply felt across Africa, threatening its food and energy security. In July 2023, a seven-member African peace delegationvisited both Russia and Ukraine to persuade two leaders to end the destructive war. Unfortunately, like many other peace initiative proposals by other countries, this effort also faltered as none of the leaders agreed to negotiate.
As if this weren’t enough, it now seems that the war between Kyiv and Moscow has spiralled into the Sahel, evoking a chilling reminder of the Cold War. After World War II, the escalating rivalry between the communist Soviet Union and the capitalist United States (US) led both nations to vie for influence globally, particularly in Africa. This struggle resulted in numerous skirmishes and even full-scale wars, causing millions of human lives and the promotion of authoritarian regimes across the continent. In a disturbing turn of events, it seems that a new front between Russia and Ukraine has now surfaced in Sahel, Africa.
Last week, a rebel ambush in Northern Mali resulted in the deaths of 84 Russian Wagner mercenaries and 47 Malian soldiers. From 22 to 27 July, the Malian military and Wagner group engaged in intense combat with a coalition of Tuareg separatists and jihadist militants near Tinzaouaten, close to the Algerian border. During the last few days of the standoff, the separatists intensified their attacks using heavy weapons, drones, and suicide car bombs (SVBIEDs), leading to significant casualties among both Wagner mercenaries and Malian soldiers. The Ukrainian military admitted to providing intelligence and possibly some of these weapons to the rebel groups opposing the combined forces of Wagner and the Malian junta.
Mali, a landlocked country in West Africa, has been fighting with these rebel jihadists and separatist forces in its northern regions for over a decade. Since 2013, France has been assisting the Malian government in this fight. However, after the military junta took power in Mali in 2020, France refused to recognise the new government and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) imposed severe economic sanctions and trade restrictions on Mali. In response, the Junta expelled French forces and withdrew from ECOWAS, turning rather to the Russian private military group Wagner for support in their fight against the rebels.
This setback represents arguably the most significant one for Russia since its re-engagement in Africa. Remarkably, this single event resulted in more Russian casualties than French losses over their nine-year vigil. In response, Mali cut off its diplomatic relations with Ukraine. Mali’s northern neighbour Niger also followed suit and became the second African country to sever its ties with Ukraine. The third signatory of the Liptako-Gourma Charter and member of the Alliance of Sahel States, Burkina Faso, is also likely to sever its diplomatic tie with Ukraine soon. Previously, Ukraine had confirmed its involvement in Sudan’s civil warand support for Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in their war against the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). While the RSF is led by General Muhammad Hamdan’ Hemedti, Dagalo, allegedly supported by United Arab Emirates, the SAF is led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, currently supported by the Wagner group. It won’t be a surprise if Sudan also decides to cut its ties with Ukraine. Although these diplomatic rows won’t affect Ukraine much, nonetheless, it is a symbolic loss for Ukraine. Instead of bolstering Ukraine’s narrative and providing a propaganda victory, this whole episode seems to be working against Ukraine.
Refusing to concede, Ukraine instead ramped up its campaign of narrative to amplify the significance of this victory against Wagner. Despite the diplomatic setback in Sahel, the Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba is carrying on with his three-country tour to Africa, where he will be visiting Malawi, Zambia, and Mauritius. All three countries voted to condemn Russia for its aggression during the UNGA resolution—a bill that was rejected by 24 African nations. As the Ukrainian foreign minister undertakes his fourth trip to the continent in two years, it underscores Africa’s strategic importance for Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine hosted a Peace Summit in Switzerland in June. Although the support from Africa was somewhat tepid, with only 12 out of 55 African countries participating, Ukraine plans to intensify its efforts in courting the continent.
On the other hand, although the ambush caught the Wagner group off guard and resulted in significant losses, it is unlikely that Wagner will withdraw from Mali anytime soon. With both France and the US having removed their troops from Mali and neighbouring Niger, this represents an opportunity for Russia to expand its orbit of influence. Currently, Wagner has around 1,000 troops stationed in Mali. Despite having nearly double the number of troops, France was unable to curb the jihadist groups. Given this, Russia might consider increasing its strength in Mali, provided the junta can bear its cost. However, unlike in the Central African Republic and Sudan, where Wagner or its successor, the Africa Corps, are active, Mali has limited resources, and it won’t be easy for the junta government to sustain these forces.
Way forward
This one loss won’t make Russia give up Mali and withdraw Wagner troops from Africa. This was the case also in Mozambique, where several Wagner members died fighting the jihadists. However, if the conflict in northern Mali continues to escalate, it could spill over to other neighbouring countries, creating regional instability in an already volatile region. Moreover, whether Ukraine will be able to sustain the anti-Russia front, with some covert support from the US or without, is a more important question. Indeed, after alienating the West, the current rulers in Mali and many other African nations are left with limited choices. Therefore, none of these countries are likely to abandon Russia anytime soon. Instead, if the situation exacerbates, Russia might consider scaling up its involvement in Africa.