“Our people have irrevocably turned their backs on ECOWAS,” Niger’s ruling General Abdourahamane Tiani told the cheering crowd that attended the Niamey summit.

Trust them, it was not just another formal meeting but a street party, which saw the leaders walking through massive rallies and street procession,s as they received massive popular support for their actions. The meeting was held the day before the ECOWAS Summit, scheduled for Abuja, and there was no surprise when it was announced that: “Our people have irrevocably turned their backs on ECOWAS,” Niger’s ruling General Abdourahamane Tiani told the cheering crowd that attended the Niamey summit.

On the 6th of July, the military heads of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger convened the inaugural summit of the Confederation of the Sahel States (AES). They once again clearly enunciated their total commitment to protecting their sovereignty and security, while combating neocolonialism. The three Sahelian leaders, who came to power through military coups between 2020 and 2023, said they wanted to take the Alliance, set up in September 2023, a step further by establishing it as a confederation. The Confederation of the Sahel States, with the acronym, AES, is headed by Mali in its first year. AES regroups 72 million people in the central Sahel.

Trust them, it was not just another formal meeting but a street party, which saw the leaders walking through massive rallies and street procession,s as they received massive popular support for their actions. The meeting was held the day before the ECOWAS Summit, scheduled for Abuja, and there was no surprise when it was announced that: “Our people have irrevocably turned their backs on ECOWAS,” Niger’s ruling General Abdourahamane Tiani told the cheering crowd that attended the Niamey summit. It would be recalled that AES had pulled out of ECOWAS in February.

The following day, ECOWAS leaders, meeting in Abuja, were morose and appeared a bit lost. They lamely emphasised the need for reconciliation with the three countries and expressed their regrets that they have still received no response to the positive moves they had made in removing sanctions and asking for resumed negotiations. They chose Senegal’s President Faye as mediator and he would be assisted by Togo’s President Faure Gnasingbe. It is an indication of mismanagement of the dossier, that only the newly elected President Faye, who espouses anti-neocolonial language like theirs, is an accepted interlocutor.

ECOWAS has to prepare itself for protracted negotiations with these countries of the Sahel, starting with an honest review of its own failures and successes. Clearly, its normative framework and methodology of responding to unconstitutional changes of government need to be reconsidered. It also has to prepare its red lines, in terms of conditionalities.

“Our region is facing the risk of disintegration,” said Omar Alieu Touray, the President of the ECOWAS Commission. This negative outcome must be laid on the door steps of ECOWAS itself, which mismanaged the response to the series of coups that occurred over the past couple of years. The AES, meanwhile, is enjoying massive popularity as it basks in the mantra of its focus on defeating neo-colonialism in their zone and openly mocking the rest of ECOWAS, minus Senegal, for its servility to neo-colonialism and imperialism. Burkina Faso’s Captain Ibrahim Traoré sharply criticised what he termed “house slaves” – an euphemism for African leaders who he perceives as still under the influence or control of their former colonial powers. Addressing an approving audience, Traoré stated that: “Imperialists view Africa as their dominion, believing they own our people, lands, and resources. Since the illusory independence granted to African nations in the 1960s, they’ve installed local proxies to maintain their control. We refer to these proxies as ‘house slaves’ – individuals whose sole aspiration is to emulate and serve their masters.” He added that: “The people of the Sahel will no longer be manipulated; we will not allow this anymore.”

It is indeed the case that many of West Africa’s countries are guilty, as charged, for remaining as lackeys of neocolonialism. Nonetheless, I await the evidence that these three military regimes will sustain the anti-imperialist struggle. When Niger’s Tiani criticised ECOWAS for its perceived failure to protect citizens from terrorist threats, the question was that as soldiers, why did they not play their own role in defeating terrorism as leaders in their nation’s armed forces. Well, they say they are doing it now and they have recently initiated a cross-border military force, leveraging each member state’s strengths to counter jihadist activities, and we can only hope that they succeed.

ECOWAS has to prepare itself for protracted negotiations with these countries of the Sahel, starting with an honest review of its own failures and successes. Clearly, its normative framework and methodology of responding to unconstitutional changes of government need to be reconsidered. It also has to prepare its red lines, in terms of conditionalities. AES is riding a popularity crest at this moment but its fundamentals are weak, given its landlocked economies, poverty and dependence of a significant part of its population on travelling to the coastal countries for their livelihoods. ECOWAS should take a medium-term view of its strategic options.

The stories of arrests of human rights defenders and journalists in the AES, as well as forced disappearances and killing are already appearing. As the geopolitics develops, are we going to see a simple substitution of Russian for French neocolonialists? Populism is a mode of governance that is not sustainable…

Let us not forget West Africa’s history with young “radical” army officers in power. The Sierra Leonean political scientist, Jimmy Kandeh coined the term “militariat” to describe the process of political decomposition that followed the capture of state power by young conspiratorial junior officers in Sierra Leone, Liberia and The Gambia. They take over power on an anti-corruption ticket and become very corrupt themselves. They all left a trail of blood and destruction behind them.

We should not forget the populist Dadis Camara. I remember my visit to Guinea at the height of his populism. Each night, Guineans were hooked to the television watching their young President and the head of the anti-drug agency interrogate generals accused of being drug traffickers and producers of pornographic films. The son of the late President, Captain Usman Conte, was humiliated on television for being a major drug dealer providing cover for South Americans to bring in drugs through military air strips. “We need more drama,” Guineans were saying initially. Then arbitrary rule, mass arrests and the stadium massacre of 2009, when the true character of the regime was revealed, followed, with the killing of 150 peaceful protestors and the raping of over one hundred women.

The stories of arrests of human rights defenders and journalists in the AES, as well as forced disappearances and killing are already appearing. As the geopolitics develops, are we going to see a simple substitution of Russian for French neocolonialists? Populism is a mode of governance that is not sustainable and when people start seeing through the narrative, state terror appears to silence the same people who were in earlier times applauding the revolution.