Louis-Hubert-Gonzales Lyautey was a French statesman who lived between 1864 and 1934. He was a soldier and a marshal of France and built the French Protectorate of Morocco. John F. Kennedy, once referred to Lyautey in one of his famous discourses and said, “The great French Marshall Lyautey once asked his gardener to plant a tree. The gardener objected that the tree was slow growing and wouldn’t reach maturity for 100 years. The Marshall replied, “In that case, there is no time to lose; plant it this afternoon!” The growth of a nation or for that matter a region is likewise a lengthy affair, and it requires deployment of many inputs and resources at individual, national and regional levels before it may flower and bear fruits like a tree or in the case of an individual, countries and regions a position of honor and glory in global affairs.
Such resources can simply be the location of a country or region. One should look at Singapore, a city located at the end of the Malay Peninsula between Malaysia and Indonesia as well as the Straits of Malacca and South China Sea. It put good use to its location and built a resourceful shipping hub and financial centre. Resources are meaningless unless they are put to use, and such is the potential oil and gas resources of the Horn of Africa States. Unless all the reports we read are all false and based on mere speculations, the region is reported to be a hydrocarbon rich region but not a drop is yet exploited. About a decade ago, a pipeline was planned between some wells to be drilled in the Somali State of Ethiopia to Djibouti but have not materialized. We do not know what came of it.
In the place of resource exploitation to stop the miseries of their people, governments in the region and for that matter all its politicians, appear to be engaged in their endless quarrels among themselves on how to rob their own people and not for improvement of governance in each country or region. The continuing wars in Ethiopia, the endless quarrels of Somali politicians whose differences do not go beyond their clan lineages, the almost frozen leaderships in Eritrea and Djibouti have given space for terror groups and outsiders to interfere in the region’s affairs on a routine basis.
But even worse, Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia together with other politicians of the region were busy raising the stakes even higher to create unwarranted inter-state conflicts, which seemed to be dying away lately. The MoU Abiye signed with a local leader in Somalia cannot be described but the peak of irresponsibility diverting his failed administration from the eyes of his population in Ethiopia to extra-Ethiopia matters. He forgot that the world is made of some 193 official member states of the United Nations with 3 more observer countries, altogether some 196 nations. There are rules that must be followed which basically defines each country’s territorial borders. The MoU remains an illegal document and would open a pandora box should it be allowed, where any country can enter into agreements with regions of other countries bypassing the legal governments of those countries.
The poor populations of the region are used as fodder for the fire of conflicts engineered by politicians, and many of them die, not only because of the direct wars, but because of hunger and diseases, which the politicians failed to address and/or natural calamities. And one looks at all the politicians of the Horn of Africa States, and they look well fed and handsome and well dressed in their latest fashion suits and dresses, while their populations look emaciated, distraught, almost unclothed and in inhumane situations.
Are they not ashamed of themselves?
The region is reported to contain huge reserves of oil and gas, which remain under the sea floor or under the ground. What is the point of these resources staying there if the owners are dying anyway? Should they not give contracts to those who have the ability, the resources and the wherewithal to exploit these resources with benefits for the populations of the region?
The region, of course, has limited resources to exploit the potential reserves of oil and gas in the region. This does not, however, deny it the ability and its capacity to offer tenders to international companies, who would like to diversify their sources of these products. The Horn of Africa States is a frontier region and would be in the horizons of many companies. Although many pundits discuss the end of the hydrocarbon era, it is not yet obvious for the applications of hydrocarbons in today’s world is clearly deep and touches almost everything from use of hydrocarbons as a source of energy but also as a source of clothes, a source of building materials, furniture, household utensils, industrial and other instruments on daily use in health, education and provision of other services.
The most common usage of hydrocarbons as a source of energy includes transportation, where most people in the world currently use individual and group transportation vehicles. These are being currently replaced by electric vehicles (“EVs”). But a major drawback has developed lately with respect to these electric vehicles. If one breaks, repairing it is reported to be expensive. There are also limited experienced mechanics who can handle electric vehicles as most appear to be also based on advanced technologies. How many people would be able to support such a repairing process? How many are skilled enough to carry out such repairs? There are many limitations to the usage of renewable resources, and it would appear that we are a long way before the use of oil and gas as a source of energy or other purposes would be gone or severely limited.
About four decades ago, many international companies rushed to the region but then withdrew on “force majeure” issues when the region entered into a new cycle of violence. These international companies included among others ConocoPhillips, Shell (Pectin), Amoco, Eni, Total and Texaco. They reported that they would come back when peace came back to the region, which seems to be as elusive as ever. Abiye Ahmed of Ethiopia has just started another cycle on inter-state violence or at least distrust, which can lead to violence. In the meanwhile, adventurer companies created solely for this purpose appear to have shown up in the region. They include among others Falcon Petroleum, Southwest Energy, Calvalley Petroleum Inc, Pexco Exploration, Africa Oil Corporation, Afar Exploration Company, Coastline Exploration, and Epsilon Energy Ltd.
It does appear, however, that the region is not able yet to proceed with the development of the hydrocarbon industry mainly because of its state being like a poor man who wants to select to his taste. But the region still has its big begging bowls, and the world is calling for its assistance all the time. The most recent was the call for some US$ 1.6 billion of aid in the Africa/Italy meeting in Rome. Why couldn’t they offer workable contracts for potential investors to exploit the hydrocarbon potential of the region, instead?
The region appears to be living in dreams, old histories of days bygone that would not come back. The region cannot continue selectively remembering its glory days of the past. It must create its own future based on what is available today. It faces a huge growing population that needs to be employed, clothed, sheltered and fed and the begging bowls would never be enough. Neither conflicts among its various ethnic groups nor inter-state conflicts would address the region’s dire needs. The region, indeed, needs to settle down and get down from the steep but wiggly high pedestal it has climbed, which can fall any time. Such are the actions of Abiy Ahmed in his own country and with others!
The claim to have an owned access to a sea to assist its economic development is a false narrative, which the Prime Minister must withdraw from. Ethiopia’s borders are demarcated by the International community. It cannot and should not spend money on shipbuilding and ports when it does not have a sea and when its people are hungry. He could have used the same funds to address some of the dire needs of his people and country. Some of the funds could have been used to exploit the hydrocarbon resources of the country which would have provided more funds than the toxic aid and grants and handouts from the United Arab Emirates and others. He would have also created a lasting friendship with his neighbors, Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea, and forgotten the old narrative of empire building. It is no longer possible. Keeping the old country together is, in itself, a major problem.
The hydrocarbon industry can play a part in maintaining peace in the country and region and could contribute to the development of both. It is perhaps needless to say that patience and fortitude would help but resources and the ability to exploit them, such as hydrocarbons represent, would be useful for the region.