On the third anniversary of the Abraham Accords, an already fractured region is divided further over the prospects of peace.
As the United States celebrates the third anniversary of the Abraham Accords, which seeks normalization and shared economic and political relations between Israel and the Arab world, three of the most vociferously anti-normalization governments sit side by side across North Africa. Sandwiched between Egypt, the first country to make peace with Israel, and Morocco, which established diplomatic relations with Israel in December 2020, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya remain staunchly opposed to normalization, further dividing an already fractured region.
North Africa is one of the least economically integrated regions in the world and is politically divided over the Western Sahara conflict, whose tentacles reach across North Africa. Recently, Algeria reopened its airspace to Moroccan aircraft to allow humanitarian assistance to reach Morocco following the 6.8 magnitude earthquake near Marrakesh on September 8. The airspace had been closed to the Moroccans since September 2021. However, these gestures should not be read as a sign of reconciliation across the region. Rather, the decision on whether to sign on to the Abraham Accords or undertake any sort of normalization with Israel has the potential to further isolate Morocco from its near neighbors.
Morocco was the fourth Arab country to sign an accord with Israel, following Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Sudan. The Moroccans, Americans, and Israelis signed a joint declaration in December 2020 affirming U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. It affirmed the intent of Morocco and Israel to authorize direct flights and overflight rights, establish full diplomatic relations, promote economic cooperation, and pursue a range of other forms of cooperation. These would cover the domains of trade, finance, technology, civil aviation, agriculture, tourism, and energy, much of which has been accomplished.
But the remaining North African states have staked out an opposing view. While much of the region is geographically removed from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Tunisia hosted the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) headquarters from 1982 until 1991. During that time, the PLO headquarters were attacked by the Israeli Air Force, killing 47 and wounding 65, including Tunisian civilians. The Tunisian public is therefore more aware of, and closely tied to, the Palestinian cause than other more far-flung Arab states.
Tunisian President Qaïs Saied has long been a staunch and vocal opponent of normalization with Israel and in May 2021 affirmed that anyone who normalized ties with Israel was a “traitor,” a point on which he doubled-down in August 2023 by stating that normalization constituted “high treason.” At the same time, Tunisia began studying a proposed law to criminalize normalization with Israel.
Saied’s government has also followed the lead of its predecessors and prevented Israeli athletes from participating in sporting events in Tunisia. And in 2020, the Tunisian Foreign Ministry attacked tennis superstar Ons Jabeur and her doubles partner Chiraz Bechri for playing against Israeli athletes in the Billie Jean King Cup. Tunisia’s position is also influenced by Algeria, which has served as Saied’s most vocal supporter following his effective coup in July 2021 and is one of the few countries willing to provide his autocratic government with financial support.
Algeria has also repeatedly reaffirmed its rejection of normalization with Israel. Following the deal between the United States, Morocco, and Israel that traded normalization for recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, the Algerian government was emboldened in its anti-Morocco and anti-Israel rhetoric. Algerian President Abdel-Majid Tebboune has used the Abraham Accords as an excuse to strengthen the country’s relationship with Iran and counter what he perceives to be a Morocco-Israel axis.
Libya’s official rejection of normalization with Israel was clearly on display in late August, when Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush was suspended by Prime Minister Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah and forced to flee the country after Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen leaked that he had met with her the previous week. Libya maintains a 1957 law on the books that makes it illegal to normalize ties with Israel. However, reports from 2021 show that Saddam Haftar, the son of Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, visited Israel in November 2021 to seek help for his father’s camp in exchange for Libyan-Israeli normalization.
North Africa is not likely to overcome its differences any time soon, but that is not necessarily due to disagreements over normalization with Israel. First, while the Moroccan government may be isolated in its position, its people are less so. Despite the government’s strong support for normalization, public opinion across the region remains largely opposed. In a 2022 Arab Opinion Index poll, only 20 percent of Moroccans supported diplomatic recognition of Israel by Rabat (the highest percentage in the Arab world, followed by 18 percent in Sudan and 13 percent in Egypt and Kuwait). For the other North African states, the results were very low—only 4 percent of Tunisians, 2 percent of Libyans, and less than 1 percent of Algerians support diplomatic recognition.
Second, the growing Tunisia-Algeria relationship has caused a concomitant Tunisia-Morocco rift. This was most clearly on display in August 2022 after Saied warmly and publicly welcomed Brahim Ghali, the leader of the Polisario Front fighting Moroccan forces in Western Sahara, to Tunis for the Tokyo International Conference on African Development. Morocco withdrew its ambassador from Tunisia in response, and Tunisia followed suit with its ambassador in Rabat.
As for relations with the United States, it is unlikely that rejection of the Abraham Accords by Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya will have a negative impact. Even prior to the Abraham Accords, Morocco was by far the most pro-American state in North Africa and the United States considered Morocco a far deeper and more important partner than it did Tunisia, Algeria, or Libya. Morocco is home to the only U.S. Free Trade Agreement on the African continent and is a major non-NATO ally of the United States. While Tunisia experienced a brief uptick in its engagement with and support from the U.S. government following the 2010–2011 uprising, that support waned dramatically after Saied’s rollback of rights and freedoms. Furthermore, when it comes to the Abraham Accords, the United States government has been far more focused on winning over Saudi Arabia than on the North African states.
If Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya continue to vociferously oppose the Abraham Accords, this is not likely to change their relationships with Washington in any remarkable way. What remains to be seen, however, is whether the growing isolation of the Moroccan government from its near neighbors—over Western Sahara or growing economic and diplomatic ties with Israel—will drive an even deeper wedge into an already divided region.