Analysis: The EU is offering a huge financial aid package to Tunisia in return for stopping migration, with Kais Saied taking full advantage of Europe’s fears.

How much are the borders of a country worth? After a recent European Union offer of financial aid, Tunisia is asking itself the same question.

The EU announced last week that it will provide €100 million to Tunisia this year for border control, search and rescue, anti-smuggling, and returns and that it stands ready to provide a further €1 billion of macro-financial assistance if the country follows through with reforms.

The offer was announced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during a visit to Tunisia last week along with anti-immigration European leaders Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

"Europe is no longer talking about human rights or democracy, are they? It seems like Ben Ali's era all over again: fear of immigration, Islamism, or terrorism" 

The deal comes only a month after the European Parliament issued a resolution condemning Kais Saied’s repressive regime and calling for “the Tunisian authorities to put an immediate end to the crackdown against trade unions, civil society, independent judiciary, migrants and political opponents”.

Since February, at least 30 political opponents of Kais Saied have been arrested. Member of the European Parliament Mounir Satouri has been very vocal about the president’s crackdown on freedom of speech.

His political group has organised several protests calling for the release of political prisoners in Tunisia. “Everything we worked on has been thrown away just to deal with immigration,” explained the French Green MEP to The New Arab.

In recent months, Giorgia Meloni has been calling on the international community to support Tunisia as the country grapples with a deep economic crisis.

For Mounir Satouri, ties between the European far right and the authoritarian regime in Tunisia are concerning.

“There is a mirror effect between the European far right and dictators; they are playing on the fear of immigration and terrorism. Kais Saied is promising Europe he will prevent that while Meloni is showing Italians that she’s fighting immigration,” he explains.

In recent years, nearly every country on the European continent has seen a rise in far-right groups. In twelve EU countries, nationalist parties have won over 10% of the vote in the most recent legislative elections.

Malta is the only European country with no elected representative from the far right. After Kais Saied’s coup in 2021, several European far-right political leaders expressed their support for the president, such as former French presidential candidate, Eric Zemmour.

“Europe is not learning from the past. One of the reasons immigrants are leaving their countries is because they are craving for democracy and freedom. It’s terrifying to think that even a financial institution like the IMF is imposing more human rights conditions to loan money to Tunisia than Europe,” Satouri added.

Human rights abuses have been a growing concern in Tunisia since Kais Saied’s coup, with things going from bad to worse in recent months.

In February, the Tunisian president used the ‘great replacement’ theory in an unprecedented public statement, arguing that sub-Saharan immigrants were coming to Tunisia to alter the country’s demography.

Since then, multiple abuses and racist attacks have been reported against black people in Tunisia. “Immigration is political leverage for Kais Saied. Just like Turkey or Morocco, opening or shutting the floodgates is a way to negotiate with Europe,” Tunisian journalist and political consultant Monia Ben Hamadi told The New Arab.

Ben Hamadi believes the deal has a low chance of being implemented as neither party wants to take in more migrants.

"Immigration is political leverage for Kais Saied. Just like Turkey or Morocco, opening or shutting the floodgates is a way to negotiate with Europe" 

“Both Europe and Kais Saied do not want any immigrants. I don’t see Saied accepting this deal because for him Tunisia is not just a transit point, but a destination for immigrants. In his ideology, he believes it’s not natural for migrants to come to Tunisia. And I don’t believe he will concede anything on his ideology, especially for such a low amount of aid,” he said.

Several experts believe that the deal will only go through if Tunisia helps the EU evict undocumented migrants. However, Kais Saied rejected this possibility last week, saying that “Tunisia is only responsible for its borders” in a phone meeting with Charles Michel, president of the European Council. In the same conversation, the Tunisian president also reaffirmed that illegal immigration is a threat to the country.

Part of the deal is conditioned on a new agreement with the IMF, but Kais Saied considers the conditions that the institution is currently offering as “unacceptable”.

The rest of the deal with Europe depends on border control by Tunisia, which could also fall through if the EU is expecting Tunisia to welcome undocumented migrants.

For all those reasons, Monia Ben Hamadi believes that this deal is more of a political stunt by the Tunisian president and far-right leaders in Europe. It is a manoeuvre, however, that seems to be working.

“Europe is no longer talking about human rights or democracy, are they? It seems like Ben Ali’s era all over again: fear of immigration, Islamism, or terrorism. That’s how authoritarian regimes manage to hold and get support from the West,” Ben Hamadi said.

In Tunisia’s recent history, this tactic has often worked. Former dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali used the war on terror to jail his political opponents, strengthen surveillance, and limit freedom of speech.

This policy led to close ties with some European countries, such as France. In April 2008, then-French President Nicolas Sarkozy explained during a state visit to Tunisia, that Ben Ali’s policy against terrorism is protecting the world from a “Taliban-like state in North Africa”.

"There is a mirror effect between the European far right and dictators; they are playing on the fear of immigration and terrorism" 

Freedom of speech and pluralism in Tunisia have long suffered from those types of relationships, with the new authoritarian Tunisian regime exploiting Europe’s anti-immigration stance in order to find international support and funding.

“It feels like a form of political approval [from Europe] of Kais Saied’s regime. No more talks about democracy, [instead] a potential new deal, an official visit from the European Commission president and two major European government leaders, while some important countries such as Germany are staying silent,” Monia Ben Hamadi said.

It certainly feels that Europe’s previous concerns for democracy in Tunisia are a long-lost memory.